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Time Moving Series
1/3 Forecasting Techniques
12
Management
Undergraduate 2
03/17/2014

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Cards

Term
trend
Definition
upward/downward movement of data over time
Term
seasonality
Definition
pattern of demand fluctuations that occurs every year above/below the average demand
Term
cycles
Definition
pattern that occurs over several years
Term
random variations
Definition
"blips" in data caused by chance/unusual situations
Term
stationary data
Definition
time-series data with no significant upward/downward trend in the data over time
Term
nonstationary data
Definition
time-series with a significant upward/downward trend in the data over time
Term
moving averages
Definition
forecasting technique that averages past values in computing the forecast
Term
weighted moving averages
Definition
moving average forecasting method that places different weights on different past values
Term
exponential smoothing
Definition
forecasting technique that is a combination of the last forecast and the last actual value
Term
multiplicative decomposition model
Definition
decomposition model in which the forecasted value is the product of the four components trend, seasonality, cycles, and random variation
Term
additive decomposition model
Definition
decomposition model in which the forecasted value is the sum of the four components: trend, seasonality, cycles, and random variations
Term
decomposition model
Definition
consists of breaking down a complex model into several smaller models and defining a sequence to solve the smaller models in order to find a solution big original model
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