Term
| -What kind of group biases have parellels with individual biases |
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Definition
| group attribution error, group-serving bias, and outgroup homogeneity bias |
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Term
| -Group plarization effects |
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Definition
| if you initially favor something, and you talk to a group that favors it, you will favor it even more. If you initially dislike something, and they dislike it, you will dislike it even more. |
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Term
| Groups vs Individual Performance: |
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Definition
| groups perform better on average than individuals, esp if a group leader can get everything to contribute. But the best member’s performance is usually better than the group’s |
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Term
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Definition
| the discrepancy between true accuracy and self-estimated accuracy of one’s judgment. |
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Term
| Well-calibrated confidence: |
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Definition
| : a person’s confidence and accuracy match |
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Term
| - Do people become more accurate as they learn more information |
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Definition
| No, they become more confident, not more accurate. |
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Term
| - When is overconfidence greatest?: |
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Definition
| when accuracy is near chance levels (50%), beyond 80% accuracy, people become under confident. |
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Term
| - How to be well calibrated |
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Definition
| constant feedback and self correction, not through monetary incentives to perform well. Try to consider why your judgment might be wrong, list of pros and cons. Downgrade confidence according to known patterns of overconfidence. |
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Term
| Self-perpetuating beliefs: |
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Definition
| finding evidence in support of what you already believe. People weight confirming evidence higher than disconfirming. i.e. – confirmation bias, Pygmalion effect, etc |
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Term
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Definition
| flase conceptions that become true becase they cause behavioral change (kids who are tagged as gifted with do better than kids who are not, even if they are the same initially) |
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Term
| - Raical sterotypes become self-fulfilling |
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Definition
| black applicants receive shorer interviews, interviewer sat farther away, all sub-conscious. |
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Term
| - How can you ‘fix’ self-fulfilling prophecies |
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Definition
| frame questions in a way that encourages disconfirming information, encourage people to see that confirming questions are not socially acceptable (telling people to simply disconfirm doesn’t help, they may not realize they are even doing it) |
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Term
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Definition
| courses of action that are initially desirable, but later become undesirable and difficult to escape from |
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Term
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Definition
| short term gratification leads to long term consequences (temporal discounting is the tendency to value things available now more tan those things available later) Examples: lack of exercise, eating junk food, unprotected sex |
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Term
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Definition
| negative consequences of choices are not known before hand and you cannot change course easily. Example: drugs will initially unknown side effects |
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Term
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Definition
| previous investments of time, money, or other reserces lead us to make choices we would not otherwise make |
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Term
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Definition
| higher risk seeking behavior in domain of losses. “throwing good money after bad. “I have already invested so much in the Concorde airliner, that I cannot afford to scrap it now” – this is irrational, you will probably just lose more. |
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Term
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Definition
| outcome may feel beneficial in the early stages, but ncreasingly more is needed to achieve the same level of satisfactions. It was worth it, but now its not. |
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Term
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Definition
| people do in groups wat they would no do ind. The pursuit of indi self-interest hamr the common interest. The mattress on the road, arms races, tragedy of the commons (environment) |
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Term
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Definition
| consider the cost of withdrawal before commitment, set limits for investment, decide whether to continue or withdraw based on what you know now – not prior investments, pretend your involvement is just startings, have different people make the initial and the subsequent decisions |
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Term
| - Definition of a creative product |
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Definition
| novel (original) and useful (appropriate to take at hand) |
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Term
| - Big C vs. little c creativity: |
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Definition
| Big C is major creative works, and little c is everyday creativity. |
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Term
| - Stages of Creativity (wallas): |
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Definition
i. preparation
ii. Incubation
iii. Illumination
iv. Verification |
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Term
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Definition
| : a situation where you are unable to solve a problem, but you set it aside for awhile, and later you are able to solve it, sometimes quickly. Unconscious problem solving may be taking place. The Smith and Blackenship study showed that it may be that people who put the problem aside for awhile are just forgetting information that is currently getting in the way of solving the problem. Have time to forget or stop focusing on interfering data. |
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Term
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Definition
| an “aha” experience. You see this abrupt insight whether the person was right or wrong. |
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Term
| Creative Invention (finke |
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Definition
| more creative products were created when the category and the object parts were constrained than when everything was free to think about or use. Creative invention was enhanced when participants were forced to think in unconventional ways about the objects and their uses. |
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Term
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Definition
| what you want the facts to be, not what they are. |
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Term
| - How to combat confirmation bias: |
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Definition
| take a step back, consider other perspectives to the problem, practice counterfactual reasoning (as an antidote to hindsight bias) |
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Term
| - Typical characteristics of emotion: |
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Definition
| accompanied by physiological changes, subjective feelings, physical (e.g. facial) expession that is unique to that emotion, associated thoughts or be shaped by cognitions |
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Term
| - Primary vs. Secondary Emotions: |
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Definition
| primary are universal and innate, don’t have to be taught. Secondary are more complex and must be acquired or learned |
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Term
| - Aspects that affect emotional states |
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Definition
| time (secs, minutes vs hours, days, months) and degree of differentiation ( affective states, primary, secondary) |
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Term
| -Affective states of emotion |
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Definition
| non differentiated states, such as approach / avoidance behaviors |
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Term
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Definition
| communication, evaluative information, alarm system, motivation, learning |
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Term
| - Subcoritcal route of emotion: |
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Definition
| is the direct route. Its quick, inaccurate, but often life saving. Eyes -> thalamus -> amygdala. Allows for quick action, can often cause a false alarm |
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Term
| - Neocortical indirect route of emotion |
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Definition
slow recise, complex, sluggish.
Eyes -> thalamus -> visual cortex. Can reduce fear if the situation is found to be safe |
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Term
| - How much emotion enhance cognition: |
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Definition
| emotion enhances attention toward emotional events (esp to fear stimuli). Sometimes this even occurs without our attention. (example: can detect faces with positive or negative expressions faster than neutral faces) People have greater retention for emotional events. |
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Term
| - mood congruent retrieval |
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Definition
| people remember events more easily if they are in the same emotion state as the even they are remembering. (example, if I am happier it is easier to recall a happy event) |
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Term
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Definition
| participants were shown a story, either an uneventful neutral story or an emotional story. Than half were given a placebo pill and half a bata blocker and that blocks stress hormones. Then they were asked to take a recognition test. For the placebo participants memory is best for the arousing material, for the beta blockers, theres is no higher. Stress hormones suchs as epinephrine may be responsible for enhanced memory for emotional events |
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Term
| - Anxiety and Working Memory: |
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Definition
| anxiety narrows attentional focus and reduces WM capacity, it does increase detection of treatening stimuli. |
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Term
| - Obsessiveness and Decision Making |
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Definition
| causes delayed decision making, more difficult to remember recent activities, less confidence in the ability to distinguish between real and imagined events |
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Term
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Definition
| (damasio) stores representation about the long-term emotional significance of behaviors. Given behaviors are known to have bad or good consequences long term. So when making a decision, the emotional syste gives a somatic marker to these alternatives, and this can help delay gratificationa and choose better alternatives. |
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Term
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Definition
| participants were doing a gambling task with multiple desks of cards, some decks seemed to have higher payoffs but also HIGH risks, others were much better to gain overall. The participates with damge to VmPFC did not realize this, and continued to pick from the bad deck. |
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Term
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Definition
| emotion and reason are opposing systems. Emotions used little working memory, but reason uses a lot. Emotion is corrected by reason, but at the cost of working memory capacity, or willpower. |
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Term
| -Emotion carryover effects: |
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Definition
| an emotion from one situation may affect your actions in another totally different situation. (Ex: anger from a murder movie may affect judgements of punishment for unrelated crimes |
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Term
| -Collective statistical illiteracy |
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Definition
| people are not toward how to understand risks and uncertainties at a young age, statistics is never given as a basic subject everyone should understand |
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Term
| - 3 main points of monograph: |
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Definition
| Define statistical illiteracy in health care and analyze its prevalence, the damage it does to health and emotion, its potential causes, and its prevention |
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Term
| -Absolute vs relative risk: |
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Definition
| absolute risk is the actual number out of the population, the relative risk is the risk compared to another risk. ( 2 of 7,000 women had breast cancer, since before it was 1 of 7,000, absolute increase is 100%. Media tends to report relative risk because it looks better |
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Term
| - Conditional probabilities and natural frequencies |
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Definition
| conditional probabilities include sensitivity and the false positive rate. Natural frequencies are more transparent. Natural frequencies facilitate computation, they are easier to understand quickly – while conditional probabilities are normalized and confusing. |
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Term
| Positive predictive value |
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Definition
| the probabilities that a person has a diseas given a positive screening test |
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Term
| Survival and mortality rates: |
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Definition
survival rates only indicate how likely it is a person will live past a certain time (usually is a 5 year survival rate) Where mortality rates is how likely it is that a person will die from the disease, at any time.
Survival rates include only those diagnosed, mortality rates include the whole group |
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Term
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Definition
| if people are diagnosed earlier in life, it might seem that the survival rate is higher, even though the same number actually die at the same age. (4 people die at 70 and were diagnosed at 66, 0% survival rate (5 year). But if they were diagnosed at 60, survival rate is 100%) |
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Term
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Definition
| the detection of pseudodisease, based on screening errors usually. Survival rate might be very high because many people don’t actually have the disease |
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Term
| - 4 questions we should ask about all risks: |
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Definition
| Risk of what? How big? Time frame? Does it apply to me? |
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Term
| Potential hamrs of screening tests |
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Definition
| costs, inconvenience, false alarms (overdiagnosis) |
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Term
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Definition
| occurs when a test is positive but the person does not have the disease |
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Term
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Definition
| test is negative in a person who does have the disease |
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Term
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Definition
| proportion of negative tests among clients without the condition |
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Term
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Definition
| proportion of positive tests among clients with the condition |
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Term
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Definition
| patients tend to seek certainty when there is none. They assume that screen results are 100% correct, because they want to be sure, whether it is positive or negative . They also assume treatments guarantee a cure |
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Term
| - How many patients discussed risks and benefits with their doctors during visits? How does this relate to people’s ability to understand basic risks |
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Definition
| ¼ , people are normally not informated about the risks. |
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Term
| -3 problems with the quality of press coverage of health statistics: |
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Definition
Failure to provide quantitative data on how well the medications work
Commonly reported using only a relative risk reduction format without clearly specifying the base rates
Omittance of major limitations |
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Term
| How do advertisements typically discuss the benefits and potential harms of new drugs? |
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Definition
| While benefits are often presented in a nontransparent format, harms are often stated in a way that minimized their salience. Often display the relative risk reduction in prominent, large letters, but present harms in long lists of very fine print |
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Term
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Definition
| the number of patients that must be treated in order the save the life of one patient |
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Term
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Definition
| medical practice is often based not on scientific evidence but on local habits. There is huge regional differences in how things are done, people tend to follow the local custom |
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Term
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Definition
| often a doctors specialty determines treatment, even if another treatment is known to be better for the certain problem. Urologists will recommend radical surgery, radiation oncologists will recommended radiation, etc. |
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Term
| -2 consequences of misleading advertising: |
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Definition
| Emotional manipulation, Impediments to informed consent and shared decision making |
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Term
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Definition
| patients should be informed about the pros and cons (possible risks, side effects, etc) of a treatment and its alternatives and should decide on based on this information whether or not they wish to undergo the treatment; they need to be given all the information and not told which treatment to use by a doctor |
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Term
| Why does statistical illiteracy continue: |
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Definition
| people (physians, patients, students) are not educated in understanding statistics, the media fuels this misunderstand by framing statistics to influence the public |
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Term
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Definition
| physicians do not even inform patients about tests or treatments performed on them |
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Term
| -What statistics are used to communicate risk in transparent forms |
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Definition
| absolute risk, natural frequencies, mortality rates |
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Term
| - Statistics that are non-transparents: |
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Definition
| relative risks, conditional probabilities (sensitivities and specificities) survival rates, and statements about single events that don’t specify the reference class |
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Term
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Definition
| benefits and harms of treatments are reportedin different measurements, units, or currencies: benefits in big numbers and harms in small numbers |
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Term
| - Why would medical journals not make transparency a requirement for submissions?: |
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Definition
| funding from pharmaceutical industry |
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Term
| Why do schools do so little for statistical literacy? |
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Definition
| It is taught too late in school, taught with representations that confuse the students, the examples are normally boring and children are not motivated, and teachers are in general unversed in statistical thinking |
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Term
| -4 major concerns teachers have with instructing young children about statistics: |
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Definition
*There are simply more important things in the elementary math curriculum (something else would suffer from it).
*Statistics is about games of chance and touches upon content that is simply not appropriate for children in the elementary grades.
*We experience difficulties teaching probability and statistics to high school and even college students, let alone elementary students.
*In spite of my education as a math teacher, I know very little about data analysis, probability, and teaching in this area of mathematics. |
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Term
| -4 goals of statistical thinking as a problem-solving discipline: |
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Definition
*To learn that societal problems can be solved by critical thinking instead of mere belief, trust in authority, or violence
*to develop empirical thinking by formulating competing hypotheses and collecting and analyzing data to test them
*To develop critical thinking skills in evaluating the applicability of various statistical models to real-world problems
*To learn to use transparent representations and computer-based visual techniques |
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Term
| -Author’s 4 recommendations on probability formatting and frequency formatting |
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Definition
Use frequency statements, not single-event probabilities
Use absolute risks, not relative risks
Use mortality rates, not survival rates
Use natural frequencies, not conditional probabilities |
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Term
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Definition
| two decks of card, one is clearly better for eventually gain. One has higher winnings, but crazy losses, in the long run the safer is far better. People start to pull subconsciously from the safer deck, even before they realize the difference between the desk themselves. We don’t know why, we just know they are better. It takes awhile to consciously realize it, but you start to hunch that the safe deck if better early on. |
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Term
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Definition
| the part of our brain that leaps to conclusion like this [Iowa], like an autopilot |
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Term
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Definition
| a couple would come in and talk about an issue, not about their marriage just any issue, for 15 mins and the video would then be analyzed by Gottman on 20 dimensions. If he has an hour of talk to analyze, he can predict how likely their marriage will last by 95%. |
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Term
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Definition
| the ability of our unconscious to find patterns in situations and behavior based on very narrow slices of experience |
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Term
| -Gottman’s marriage survival rule with respect to expressed emotion |
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Definition
| Positive emotion vs negative emotion should be at least 5 to 1. |
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Term
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Definition
| defensiveness, stonewalling, criticism, and contempt |
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Term
| Gosling’s study on personality judgments? Why is it helpful to have less information: |
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Definition
| had several college students do the Big Five Personality test, and had several of their friends do personality surveys about them. He then took several people who had never met them, and showed the people the student’s dorm room. On that information, they had to answer several questions about their personality. On several traits (talkative and outgoing) the friends did way better, on agreeableness, they still did better but less so. On the other three, the strangers scored better. Often extra information (like how someone looks for who they’re with) could distort the information that we are looking for. We would assume a 300lb guy isn’t sensitive (even if he sounds like he is) when we see him, but when we see a room with a poetry book and don’t know who it belongs to, we assume they are sensitive. |
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Term
| -What predicts whether a doctor will be sued for malpractice? |
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Definition
| How they were treated by the doctor – how he spoke to them, if he was nice, if he asked questions. Its how much they LIKE the doctor, not what they did. |
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Term
| -Priming studies confucted by Bargh & colleagues |
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Definition
| Both groups hd to do a sentence scramble test, one groups tests had many words associated with politeness, and the other with rudeness. After the tests, the students were to go see the experiementor for the next step, but the experimentor would be talking to someone else. The people primed to be ruded interrupted after about 5 min, the other group never interrupted at all. |
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Term
| -How does damage to the ventromedial prefortal cortex affect behavior? |
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Definition
| Damasio, works out contingencies and relationships, and sorts through information very quickly. Without this, people in the IOWA study lacked judgement. They aren’t able to focus on what really matters |
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Term
| -What is the relationship between what people say they want in a date and how they actually act? |
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Definition
| People will often meet someone they like automatically, even though she/he does not match their ‘creditions’ for a time after this, they will change what they think they want in a person, then after a time it normally changes back. |
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Term
| - Implicit Association Test |
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Definition
| : placing certain words in categories. Sometimes two categories are places together (male/family and female/career) that create dissonouce in our associations, and it takes us longer to put them in the right category |
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Term
| -What conditions lead to good decision making in fast paced decisions?: |
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Definition
| Training, rules, and rehearsal |
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Term
| Verbal overshadowing effect? |
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Definition
| it is easy for us to recognize a face, but when asked to descbribe a face, it uses a different part of the brain and can inhibit us from now being able to remember it. If asked to describe how you solved a puzzle, it will be harder for you to solve it. It uses a different system. |
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Term
| How did the Fire Commander recognize the impending accident? |
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Definition
| the fireman believed it was ESP, but he made several observations about the fire, and just never consciously put them together. He knew something was wrong, and he acted. He didn’t have time to figure out how he knew it, but there were reasons. |
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Term
| -What does the Cook Country Medical Center experiement reveal about reasoning?: |
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Definition
| people assume that the more information we have, the more judgements we can make. But this one system was more accurate then taking into account all other background information that seems important to the issue. All the extra information just confuses everything, you don’t need it to get to the core. |
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Term
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Definition
| when a panel of jam experts and a panel of students were asked to rank a series of jams, there answers were actually pretty similar. However, when asked to also analyze the jams on a few dimensions, their answered changed. Making people think about it completely through their answers out of whack. This did not happen with the experts, because they were used to thinking this way |
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Term
| -Effect of facial expressions on mood? What are micro-expressions |
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Definition
| Facial expressions are so innate that even making the faces can cause us to feel that emotion. Micro-expressions are very quick small triggers of a certain emotion. (For example, the lips pulling down just slightly before a smile, shows actual anger) |
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Term
| -How does autism affect eye gaze and activation of the fusiform gyrus |
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Definition
| People with autism do not look at people’s eyes like others often do, and thus are not able to tell their emotions as easily. The fusiform gyrus normally is activated when we picture or look at faces. Autistics don’t use this part of their brain to view faces, they use the same part of their brain they use to view objects. |
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Term
| - Effect of extreme stress on decision making and behavior |
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Definition
| highly stressful situations make it difficult for us to ‘mind read’ and really see someones true intensions. They become autistic. We get to aroused and intuition is lost. |
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Term
| - why was the use of a screen in classical music tryouts helpful to women?: |
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Definition
| whoever is decided who wins the audition are not affected by their assumptions or opinions about the person. Even just seeing someone walk across the stage is long enough for us to make a judgment about them. And that judgment will affect the tryout. A screen avoids this. |
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