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Current investors, potential/future investors, management, creditors, govt. |
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What depends on the user? |
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Role of financial accounting: |
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supply user with information—accountant’s job is to know what the investor needs |
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Investor supplies the information to the accountant (contrasts the role of financial accounting) |
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Rationale Decision Theory |
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Captures the “average” investor’s behavior—not focused on outliers Logically what should happen- “reasonable” |
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How does understanding rational behavior help an accountant? |
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Helps an accountant to provide the information that investor’s need |
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What is the objective of the Single Person Decision Theory? |
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Objective is to maximize the expected utility |
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What are the two types of investors? |
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1. Risk Averse Investors 2. Rational Investors |
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Under the Single Person Decision Theory, are probabilities objective or subjective? |
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What is Risk Aversion under the Single Person Decision Theory? |
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Risk increases as the stakes increase |
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How is risk measured under the Single Person Decision Theory? |
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- Diminishing Returns (utility): As we increase utility, eventually payoff diminishes (plateaus) - Square roots, logs, natural logs |
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If there is no risk under the Single Person Decision Theory what happens? |
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Definition
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Conditional Probability Table: |
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Establishes the probabilities of several outcomes If a probability is below 50%, no bueno. We must use Bayes Theorem to help use combine probabilities to give us the outcome we would like. |
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How do we use Bayes Theorem to get the probabilities we "want"? |
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Combine prior probabilities with information systems to get posterior probabilities |
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How do we test quality of financial statements? |
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Definition
o Ratios o Variances o Actual vs. budgeted o Revisions & Restatements o Stock Price o Accruals – especially those based on estimations |
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Issues with Decision Theory |
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-Prior probabilities—are they accurate? -Specifying payoffs -Specifying utilities -Information systems -Conclusions -States of nature |
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Easton & Zmijewski investigated what? |
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Investigated the response of stock prices to accounting earnings announcement |
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If accounting information is "useful" what would happen? |
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The stock price would react accordingly |
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How do we measure accounting information? |
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Focus on earnings announcement & the returns after the announcement- releasing information to the market - is the info good/bad? -Compare the earnings announcement to analysts forecasts |
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= Abnormal stock price return |
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discounted PV of expected dividends • Numerator: expected dividends • Denominator: Discount rate • Beta= Systematic risk • Greater firm risk→ greater beta → greater discount rate • Results in lower price & lower returns |
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Easton & Zmijewski determined ERC's vary..why is this? |
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Definition
Greater ERC, greater revision Greater ERC, greater beta |
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Easton & Zmijewski determined that... |
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Information systems are informative |
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The conceptual framework is based in part on what theory? |
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Useful information is ___ and ___ |
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relevant and faithful in representation |
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How does the financial statement improve decision making? |
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by refining posterior state probabilities |
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Does utility increase proportionally with payoffs? |
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No, eventually they plateau/diminish |
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Term
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A guaranteed return that someone would accept, rather than taking a chance on a higher, but uncertain, return |
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