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sociologists WHAT from a population to discover and understand social phenomena. |
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Two famous examples of sampling illustrate the importance of proper sampling techniques: |
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1. 1936 Literary Digest presidential poll
2. 1948 Gallup presidential poll |
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1936 Literary Digest presidential poll |
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Editors mailed postcards to people in six states, names were selected from telephone directories & automobile registration lists.
Doing so created a sampling frame problem: they only sampled the rich, and therefore did not have an accurate sample to predict the election. |
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1948 Gallup presidential poll |
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The Gallup samplers used a method called quota sampling, which selects people to match a set of characteristics (e.g. the poor, those living in rural vs. urban environments).
Predictions were based on old census data: the quotas they used were no longer valid indicators of the U.S. population, and Gallup incorrectly predicted Thomas Dewey defeating Harry Truman |
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There are two types of sampling methods: |
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1. Nonprobability sampling 2. Probability sampling |
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represents techniques where samples are not selected by using probability theory. |
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are selected according to some sort of random assignment. |
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There are four types of nonprobability sampling: |
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1. Reliance on available subjects 2. Purposive (or judgmental) sampling 3. Snowball sampling 4. Quota sampling |
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Reliance on available subjects (nonprobability sampling) |
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(also called convenience or haphazard sampling) involves using people in close proximity, or people who are gathered in one place at one time.
It is generally considered one of the weaker forms of sampling.
Strengths: easy and efficient Weaknesses: can be unrepresentative of general populations |
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Purposive (or judgmental) sampling (nonprobability sampling) |
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units to be observed are selected on the basis of a researcher's judgment about which ones will be most useful or representative.
One may want to interview the entire population of some limited group (e.g. directors of shelters for homeless adults). |
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Three guidelines should be followed when selecting a purposive sample: |
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1. Informants should be knowledgeable about the cultural arena, situation, or experience being studied.
2. Informants should be willing to talk.
3. Informants should be representative of the range of points of view. |
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In purposive sampling, interviews should be selected until two criteria are met: |
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1. Completeness
2. Saturation |
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Interviews should continue until a researcher is confident subjects have provided an overall sense of the meaning of a concept, theme, or process. |
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Interviews should continue until one is confident that they are learning little that is new from subsequent interviews. |
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a nonprobability sampling method whereby each person interviewed is asked to suggest additional people for interviewing. |
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Snowball samples are appropriate for |
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studying difficult to identify or difficult to locate populations |
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Snowball sampling can be problematic for the following reasons: |
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1. It can result in samples with questionable representativeness.
2. Initial contacts may shape the entire sample and foreclose access to some members of the population of interest. |
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is a type of nonprobability sampling in which units are selected into a sample on the basis of pre-specified characteristics, so that the total sample will have the same distribution of characteristics assumed to exist in the population being studied. |
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Quota sampling begins with |
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a matrix that describes characteristics of a target population. |
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Quota sampling is similar to probability sampling, but has two inherent issues: |
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1. Quota frame problems
2. Selection of sample elements may be biased |
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▪ Proportions that different cells in a matrix represent must be accurate.
▪ It is often difficult to get up-to-date information for this purpose. |
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Selection of sample elements may be biased. |
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E.g. an interviewer may be instructed to interview 5 people who meet a given set of characteristics, yet still avoid certain people that are representative of the issue at hand. |
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In all research designs, sociologists distinguish between WHAT and informants. |
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allow a researcher to construct a composite picture of the group respondents represent. |
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s are people well versed in a social phenomenon one wishes to study and who are willing to tell what they know about it. |
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is a general term for samples selected in accord with probability theory. |
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Probability samples are often used for |
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Probability sampling can be a very effective tool in research if... |
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Nonprobability sampling cannot |
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guarantee that a sample is representative of a population. |
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Probability sampling is useful |
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because it helps ensure that the same variations that exist in a population are represented in a sample. |
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occurs when subjects selected for a study are not typical nor representative of a larger population. |
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Bias is often WHAT. When one selects a sample based on some background characteristic, they ALWAYS introduce some sort of bias into their sample. |
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Some degrees of bias are more acceptable than others |
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depending on one’s research design |
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Samples must be WHAT of the population from which they are selected |
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refers to the quality of a sample of having the same distribution of characteristics as the population from which it was selected. |
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A sample is representative of the population from which it is selected |
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if all members of the population have an equal chance of being selected in the sample. |
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There are two advantages to probability sampling: |
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1. Probability samples are typically more representative than other types of samples because biases are avoided.
2. Probability theory permits researchers to estimate the accuracy or representativeness of a sample. |
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In order to understand probability sampling one needs to differentiate WHAT and populations: |
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A unit of which a population is composed and which is selected in a sample. |
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A specified aggregation of elements in a study. |
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In probability sampling, one uses random selection |
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to select a set of elements from a population that accurately portray the total population from which the elements are selected. |
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Random selection ensures that each element has an |
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equal chance of selection. |
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provides the basis for estimating parameters of a population. |
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is the summary description of a given variable in a population.
E.g. the mean unemployment rate or age distribution in L.A. are both parameters of the L.A. population. |
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When researchers generalize from a sample, they use |
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sample statistics to estimate population parameters. |
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An action that involves elements of probability is called an |
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event or trial.
ie ▪ Dealing a card. ▪ Tossing a coin. ▪ Spinning a roulette wheel. |
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The result of an event or trial is an |
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An outcome represents the characteristic |
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of the event/trial. For example… ▪ Drawing an ace or a seven or a king, etc. ▪ A coin landing on heads or tails. ▪ A ball landing on double zero (00) in roulette. |
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robability is used to predict what kind |
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of samples are likely to be obtained from a population. |
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Thus, probability establishes a connection between samples and populations. Inferential statistics rely on this connection when they use |
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sample data as the basis for making conclusions about populations. |
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number of outcomes classifed as A -------------------------------- total number of possible outcomes |
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Two conditions must be met for a sample to be random: |
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1. Every individual in a population has an equal chance of being selected.
2. When more than one individual is being selected, the probabilities must stay constant (i.e. there must be sampling with replacement). |
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As one selects a bigger sample, |
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the sample mean approaches the population mean. |
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the more accurate its estimation of the population from which it was drawn. |
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Although samples can have different means, |
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the sample means should be close to the population mean. |
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The sample means (M1 , M2 , M3 …) should cluster around |
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Thus, the distribution of sample means tends to form a normal shape with |
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Any individual sample mean probably will not be identical to its population mean. Therefore, |
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sampling error exists when sampling. |
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represents the degree of error to be expected of a given sample design.
In other words, there is “error” between M and μ.
Some sample means will be relatively close to μ and others will be relatively far away. |
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The standard error provides a measure |
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of the standard distance between M and μ. |
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The law of large numbers: |
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The larger the sample size (n), the closer the sample means should be to the population mean (μ). |
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The formula for standard error reflects the intuitive relationship between |
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standard deviation, sample size, and “error:” |
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standard error decreases. |
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standard error increases. |
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is the estimated probability that a population parameter lies within a given confidence interval. |
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is the range of values within which a population parameter is estimated to lie. |
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is a list of units that compose a population from which a sample is selected. |
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If a sample is to be representative of a population, it is essential |
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that the sampling frame include all members of the population. |
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There are different ways to sample using probability theory, including… |
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1. Simple random sampling
2. Systematic sampling
3. Stratified sampling |
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Simple random sampling is a type |
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of probability sampling in which the units composing a population are assigned numbers. |
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Simple random sampling is beneficial in many ways, but it is |
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not necessarily the most accurate sampling method. |
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Simple random sampling has |
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A set of random numbers is generated and the units having those numbers are included in the sample. |
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is a type of probability sampling in which every kth unit in a list is selected for inclusion in a sample. |
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Generally, systematic sampling is |
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more accurate than simple random sampling. |
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Two terms are frequently used in connection with systematic sampling: |
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1. Sampling interval
2. Sampling ratio |
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is the standard distance between elements selected from a population in the sample. |
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is the proportion of elements in a population that are selected to be in a sample. |
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Stratified sampling is a modification of |
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either simple random or systematic sampling. |
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refers to the grouping of units composing a population into homogenous groups (strata) before sampling. |
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Stratified sampling is slightly more accurate |
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than simple random sampling. |
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is a multistage sampling technique in which natural groups are sampled initially with the members of each selected group being sub-sampled afterward. |
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Cluster sampling is used when it is |
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not practical or possible to create a list of all elements that compose a target population. |
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Cluster sampling is efficient, but |
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In multistage cluster sampling, |
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stratification techniques can refine and improve a sample being selected. |
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By stratifying a sample in multistage cluster sampling, |
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sampling error can be reduced. |
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Probability proportionate to size (PPS) sampling |
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is a type of multistage cluster sample in which clusters are selected not with equal probabilities, but with probabilities proportionate to their sizes—as measured by the number of units to be sub-sampled. |
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PPS is a more sophisticated form of |
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Depending on the nature of one’s population, one may wish to sample a |
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disproportionate amount of one or more elements, or use weighting to sample. |
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assigning different weights to cases that were selected into a sample with different probabilities of selection. |
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