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Future Value of a Single Cash Flow |
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Definition
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Present Value of a Single Cash Flow |
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Definition
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Present Value of a Perpetuity |
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Definition
PV(perpetuity) = PMT / (I/Y) |
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Present Value of an Annuity Due |
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Definition
PV (Annuity Due) = PV (ordinary annuity) * (1+r) |
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Future Value of an Annuity Due |
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Definition
FV (Annuity Due) = FV (Ordinary Annuity) * (1+r) |
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Future Value with continuous compounding |
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Definition
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Term
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Definition
EAR = (1+Periodic interest rate)N - 1 |
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Definition
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Term
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Definition
rBD = [D/F] * [360/t]
rBD = annualized yield on a bank discount basis
D = dollar discount (face value - purchase price)
F = face value of the bill
t = number of days until maturity |
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Definition
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Definition
EAY = [(1+HPY)365/t] - 1
HPY = holding period yield
t = number of days until maturity |
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Definition
Rmm = [360*rBD] / [360-(t*rBD)]
Rmm = HPY*(360/t) |
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Definition
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Definition
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Definition
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Definition
Rg = [[(1+r1) * (1+r2) ... (1+rt)](1/t)] - 1 |
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Definition
X = Number of observations / Σ(1/xi)
*Find what this measures/when it's used |
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Definition
Ly = [(n+1)*y] / 100
y = percentage point at which we are dividing the distribution
Ly = location (L) of the percentile (Py) in the data set sorted in ascending order |
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Definition
Range = Maximum value - Minimum value |
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Definition
MAD = Σ|xi-X| / n
n = number of items in the data set
X = mean
| | = absolute value
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Definition
σ2 = Σ(xi-μ)2 / N
Variances = observation - population mean |
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Term
Population Standard Deviation |
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Definition
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Definition
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Term
Sample Standard Deviation |
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Definition
s = [Σ(xi-X)2 / (n-1)]1/2 |
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Definition
s/X
Sample standard deviation / sample mean |
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Definition
[rp-rf] / sp
(mean portfolio return - risk free return) / standard deviation of portfolio returns |
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Term
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Definition
sk = [n / [(n-1)(n-2)]] * [Σ(xi-X)3 / s3]
As n becomes large, the first term reduces to 1/2 |
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Term
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Definition
[ [ [n*(n+1)] / [(n-1)(n-2)(n-3)] ] * [(Σ(xi-X)4 / s4] ] - [ [3(n-1)2] / [(n-2)(n-3)] ]
As n becomes large, the first term becomes 1/n and the third term becomes 3 |
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Term
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Definition
P(E) = a / (a+b)
Odds of "a" to "b"; switch numerator to b for probability of "b" to "a" |
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Conditional Probabilities |
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Definition
P(A|B) = P(AB) / P(B)
Probability of A given B is the probability of A and B over Probability of B |
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Term
Multiplication Rule for Probability |
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Definition
P(AB) = P(A|B) * P(B)
Probability of A and B is the probability of A given B times the probability of B |
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Term
Addition rule for Probabilities |
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Definition
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) |
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Probability for Independent Events |
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Definition
P(A|B) = P(A)
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) |
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Term
The Total Probability Rule* |
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Definition
P(A) = P(AS) + P(ASc)
*Don't know what this is at all |
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Term
Total Probability Rule for n possible scenarios |
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Definition
P(A) = P(A|S1) * P(S1) + P(A|S2) * P(S2) + ...+ P(A|Sn) * P(Sn)
Where set of events s is mutually exclusive and exhaustive |
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Term
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Definition
E(X) = Σ P(xi)*xi
xi = one of n possible outcomes |
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Term
Variance and Standard deviation (expected returns) |
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Definition
σ2(x) = Σ P(xi)*[(xi - E(X))2] |
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Term
Total Probability Rule for Expected Value |
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Definition
1. E(X) = E(X|S)P(S) + E(X|Sc)P(Sc)
2. E(X) = E(X|S1) * P(S1) + E(X|S2) * P(S2) + ...+ E(X|Sn) * P(Sn)
Where: E(X) = the unconditional expected value of X
E(X|S1) = the expected value of X given Scenario 1
P(S1) = the probability of Scenario 1 occurring
The set of events {S1, S2,..., Sn} is mutually exclusive and exhaustive. |
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Term
Covariance (expected value) |
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Definition
Cov (XY) = E{[X - E(X)][Y - E(Y)]}
Cov (RA,RB) = E{[RA - E(RA)][RB - E(RB)]} |
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Term
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Definition
Corr (RA,RB) = Cov (RA,RB) / [(σA)(σB)]
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Term
Expected Return on a Portfolio |
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Definition
Sum of weight * expected return |
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Term
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Definition
Var(Rp) = Sum of (wi'*wj*Cov(Ri,Rj)) |
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Term
Variance of a 2 asset portfolio |
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Definition
Var(Rp) = [w2a*σ2*(Ra)] + [w2b*σ2*(Rb)] + [2wa*wb*Cov(Ra,Rb)] |
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Term
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Definition
P(Event|Information) = [P(Information|Event) * P(Event)] / P(Information) |
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Definition
The number of different ways that the k tasks can be done = n1*n2*...*nk |
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Definition
nCr = (n over r) = n! / [(n-r)!*(r!)]
Used when the order in which the items assigned the labels is not important |
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Variance of a 3 asset portfolio |
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Definition
Var(Rp) = [w2a*σ2*(Ra)] + [w2b*σ2*(Rb)] + [w2c*σ2*(Rc)] + [2*wa*wb*Cov(Ra,Rb)] + [2*wb*wc*Cov(Rb,Rc)] + [2*wc*wa*Cov(Rc,Ra)] |
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Definition
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Discrete uniform distribution |
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Definition
F(x) = n * p(x)
For the nth observation |
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Term
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Definition
P(X=x) = nCx*(p)x*(1-p)n-x
p = probability of success
1-p = probability of failure
nCx = number of possible combinations of having x successes in n trials. Aka number of ways to choose x from n when the order does not matter |
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Variance of a binomial random variable |
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Definition
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The Continuous Uniform Distribution` |
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Definition
P(X b) = 0 P (x1 < X < x2) = (x2 - x1) / (b - a) |
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Term
Confidence intervals (amounts) |
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Definition
90% - x ± 1.65s
95% - x ± 1.96s
99% - x ± 2.58s
Mean ± ... |
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Probability statements that can be made about normal distributions |
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Definition
Approximately 50% of all observations lie in the interval mean ± (2/3)σ
Approximately 68% of all observations lie in the interval mean ± 1σ
Approximately 95% of all observations lie in the interval mean ± 2σ
Approximately 99% of all observations lie in the interval mean ± 3σ |
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Term
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Definition
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Roy's safety-first criterion |
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Definition
Minimize P(RpT)
Where:
Rp = portfolio return
RT = target return |
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Definition
(E(Rp)-Rt) / σp
E(Rp) = expected portfolio return
Rt = target return |
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Term
Continuously compounded returns |
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Definition
EAR = ercc - 1
Where:
rcc = continuously compounded annual rate
HPRt = e(rcc*t) - 1 |
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Term
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Definition
Sampling error of the mean = Sample mean - Population mean
= X - μ |
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Standard error (when population variance is known) |
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Definition
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Standard error when population variance is not known |
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Definition
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Term
Confidence intervals (computation) |
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Definition
Sample mean ± (reliability factor * standord error)
Reliability factor = The standard normal random variable for which the probability of an observation lying in either tail is α / 2 |
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Definition
(Sample statistic-hypothesized value) / standard error of sample statistic |
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Definition
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Definition
Reject hypothesis that is true |
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Definition
Do not reject hpothesis even though it is false |
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Definition
[(X-μ0)] / [(s / n1/2)]
X = sample mean
μ0 = hypothesized population mean
s = standard deviation of the sample
n = sample size |
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Term
Setting Price Targets with Head and Shoulders Patterns |
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Definition
Price target = Neckline - (Head-Neckline) |
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Setting Price Targets for Inverse Head and Shoulders Patterns |
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Definition
Price target = Neckline + (Neckline-Head) |
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Term
Momentum or Rate of Change Oxcillator |
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Definition
M = (V-Vx) * 100
M = momentum oscillator value
V = last closing price
Vx = closing price x days ago (typically 10) |
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Term
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Definition
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1+RS)]
RS = sum of up changes for the period / sum of absolute value of down changes for the period |
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Term
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Definition
%k = 100*[(C-L14)/(H14-L14)]
C = last closing price
L14 = lowest price in last 14 days
H14 = highest price in last 14 days
%D (signal line) = Average of the last three %K values calculated daily |
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Term
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Definition
Short Interest Ratio = Short Interest / Average daily trading volume |
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Definition
Arms Index = [Number of advancing/number of declining issues] / [Volume of advancing/volume of declining issues] |
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