• states became divided territorially.
• internal sovereignty.
• ruler of each state decides religion of state.
• expands to all laws of state.
• stops interferences with each other's domestic affairs (economic and political).

• central authority is weak.
• no public institutions, but rather elitist groups constantly competing for power.

• undesired alteration in data introduced by a technique or technology used.
• would prefer it to be completely random or creating a bias against the author's hypothesis.

• weakening or exhausting by constantly harassing or abusing the other side.
• guerillas win by not losing.

• thought of as a second civil war.
• guerilla warfare.
• military was occupying South.
• insurgents won that war.
  • redeemer constitutions: Jim Crow laws, etc.

• variable Y causes variable X, instead of variable X causing variable Y.

• variable that could be a cause of X (hypothesized cause), but could in no way be correlated with Y (outcome) in any other way.

• production and taxation is likely even during times of war.
• low capital requirements.
• valuable in unprocessed form.
• not too expensive to transport.
• immobile natural endowment.

• when one party has better or more information about the other side or about the issue being dealt with.

• bargains exist, but are not self-enforcing.
• usually caused by three things:
  • offensive advantage.
  • long run trends in relative power: shocks to state capacity.
  • concessions that change bargaining leverages: can exploit how the bargaining leverage was found to get something better.

• creates incentive for being the person to attack (offensive party).
• eliminates bargaining range.
• without offensive advantage, there is no incentive to cheat; odds of winning war are better if attack, costs of fighting are lower, military technology increase variance.

• bargaining impossible if there is literally no feasible middle ground.
• i.e. religious sites.

• opposition to intervening force is divided or lacks support, so factions and civilians defect or cascade to winning side.

UNITA

(Uniao Nacional Para a Indepedencia Total de Angola)

• in Angola.
• formed in 1966.
• MPLA becomes government in Angola.
• UNITA backed by US and South Africa.
• Bicesse Accords lead to elections in 1992.
• UNITA rejects election results and returns to fighting.
• defeated by the government in 2002.

RENAMO

(Resistencia Nacional Mocambicana)

• in Mozambique.
• founded in 1975 following independence.
• supported by white regimes in Rhodesia and South Africa.
• Rome Accords.
• now the main opposition party in Mozambique.

• in Cambodia.
• captured the capital in 1975.
• enacted genocide and mass starvation.
• Paris Accords take place in 1991.
• KR boycotts the elections.
• UN used "departing train" strategy.
• defeated in 1999.

• government installed by Vietnam in 1979.
• leader: Hun Sen.
• party to Paris Accords in 1991.
• lost the election so threatened to return to war.
• power sharing arranged.
• gradually re-established dominance in Cambodia.

ONUSAL

(United Nations Observer Mission in El Salvador)

• formed and deployed in 1991.
• there to monitor human rights.
• observation mission.
• after Chapultepec Accords (1992 cease-fire), mission expands to military police and election divisions.
• ends in 1994.
• two more limited successor missions.
• UN leaves in 1996. 

UNTAC

(United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia)

• peacekeeping operation in Cambodia.
• 1992-1993.
• UN took over the administration of an independent state.
  • organized and ran an election.
  • had its own radio station and jail.
  • was responsible for promoting and safeguarding human rights at the national level.

• X is a hypothesized cause, Y is an outcome. 
• explains how X causes Y by influencing observable behavior (look to see if these behaviors actually occur).

• a report written by Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali in 1992.
• outlined a number of additional processes of preventative diplomacy that the international community could use before peacekeeping, or simultaneously.
• also suggested distinct definitions for peacemaking and peacekeeping.
• referenced Chapter 7 of the UN Charter to justify military involvement without the consent of both parties.
• introduces the concept of "post-conflict peacebuilding."
  • Boutros-Ghali defines as "action to identify and support structures which will tend to strengthen and solidify peace in order to avoid a relapse into conflict."
• proposes peace enforcement articulation of political point of view, shaped Bosnia and Somalia.

• sets out the UN Security Council's powers to maintain peace.
• allows the Council to identify any peace threats and use military and nonmilitary action to restore peace and security.
• also gives the Military Staff Committee responsibility for strategic coordination of forces placed at the disposal of the UN Security Council.
• argues that Security Council should go further that it had in the past.

UNITAF

(United Task Force)

• multinational force led by the US and authorized by the UN.
• had the objective of establishing security conditions that would allow humanitarian operations in Somalia.
• authorizes engagement with Somali warlord.
• response to the failure of proper delivery of humanitarian aid due to fighting among rival factions.
• Chapter 7 invoked.

UNOSOM I

(United Nations in Somalia)

• in Somalia.
• the first part of a UN sponsored effort to provide, facilitate, and secure humanitarian relief.
• also to monitor the first UN-brokered ceasefire of the Somali Civil War in the early 1990s.
• it is considered an ineffective mission because the security conditions didn't allow the humanitarian efforts to reach the people.

UNOSOM II

(United Nations in Somalia)

• came after UNITAF.
• it was still considered that the security conditions didn't allow humanitarian efforts to be delivered.
• also stated that part of it's mission was to help the Somali people in rebuilding economic & political life.

UNPROFOR

(UN Protection Force)

• first UN peacekeeping force in Croatia and Bosnia & Herzegovina during Yugoslav wars.
• initial objective was to guard safe areas in Croatia.
• later it expanded to Bosnia & Herzegovina, and established safe areas there.

UNAMIR

(UN Assistance Mission for Rwanda)

• UN mission to implement the Arusha Accords, which ended the Rwandan civil war.
• widely criticized for its lack of action during the genocide.
• its mandate extended to deal with the Great Lakes refugee crisis.
• regarded as one of the UN's biggest failures.

UNOMIL

(UN Observer Mission in Liberia)

• established to exercise good offices in support of the efforts of the Economic Community of West African States and the Liberian National Transitional Government to implement peace agreements.
• investigate ceasefire violations.
• assist in maintenance of assembly sites.
• demobilization of combatants.
• support humanitarian assistance.
• investigate human rights violations and assist local human rights groups.
• observe and verify elections.

• cities protected by the UN.
• established in 1993 in Bosnia.
• resolution explicitly eschewed the use of the words "protect" and "defend."
• linked the use of force "acting in self defense."

• Doyle reading proposal of why the safe areas might work.
  • deterrent effect.

• a person who flees his/her country because of war/violence or persecution.

• a concept created to deal with mass influxes of people.
• it was hard to very the conditions needed to grant refugee status to millions of people as the case of Kivus in Zaire is a better solution when there is a mass exodus.
• alternative is that you shut the border...now prove you're being persecuted politically, set of policies to deal with mass exodus.

• an agency that is mandated to lead and coordinate international action to protect refugees and resolve refugee problems worldwide.
• the work of the agency is humanitarian and social and of an entirely non-political character.

• the home for the region surrounding Lake Kivu.
• includes portions of Rwanda and Zaire.
• after the RPF victory in Rwanda, Hutu participants of the genocide and others that feared the Tutsis reprisal fled to this region.
• clashes on cleavages, not allowed to leave.

• a Kosovar Albanian guerilla organization that sought the separation of Kosovo from Yugoslavia in the 1990s.
• its campaign against Yugoslav forces precipitated a major Yugoslav military crackdown that led to the Kosovo War of 1998-1999.
• military intervention by Yugoslav forces led by Milosevic and Serb militias within Kosovo prompted an exodus of Kosovar Albanians and a refugee crisis that eventually caused NATO to intervene militarily in order to stop what was widely considered ethnic cleansing.
• ended with a negotiated agreement that requested the UN to take over the administration and political process, including local institutional building and to determine the final status of the region.

• a norm or set of principles based on the idea that sovereignty is not a privilege, but a responsibility.
• focuses on preventing and halting four crimes: genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing.
• can be thought of as having three parts: 

1. 1. a state has a responsibility to protect its population from the four mass atrocities.
   2. if the state is unable to protect its population on its own, the international community has a responsibility to assist the state by building its capacity.  This can mean building early-warning capabilities, mediating conflicts between political parties, strengthening the security sector, mobilizing standby forces, and many other actions.
   3. if a state is manifestly failing to protect its citizens and peaceful measures aren't working, the international community must intervene at first diplomatically, then more coercively, and as a last resort with military force.

• the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia.
• carried out with approval of the UN as a response to the crimes perpetrated by Serb forces.
• ended the Yugoslav wars in 1990.

• story of the European state formation supports the idea that war generates strong incentives for the governments to build representative institutions.
• if the government depends on taxpayers for revenue to fight wars, they need to provide services in exchange.
• if they don't rely on taxpayers (financed by foreign aid) the rulers don't have incentives to provide services for their people.

• an unrecognized state located in the Horn of Africa.
• regarded internationally as an autonomous region of Somalia.
• in 1988, the Siad Barre regime committed massacres against the people of Somaliland, which led to the Somali Civil War.
• the war left the economic and military infrastructure severely damaged/weak.
• after the collapse of the central government in 1991, the territory reasserted its independence and withdrew from Somalia.
• since then, it has been governed by an administration that seeks self-determination as the Republic of Somaliland.

• a region in northeastern Somalia whose leaders declared it an autonomous state in 1998.
• a third of Somalia's population lives in the province, which contains about a third of the nation's geographical area.
• doesn't seek outright independence from Somalia.
• base their support upon clan elders 
• base their organizational along lines based on clan relationships and kinship.
• since 1998, Puntland has also been in territorial disputes with Somaliland over the Sool and Sanaag regions.

• propaganda of the deed.
• coups.
• revolutionary vanguard.
• information cascades.
• elite splits.
• Mao's 3 stage war.
• wars of attrition.

• expressing frustration can act as a spark.
• a spectacle leading to mass uprising.
• promotes violence towards political enemies as a way to start revolution or mass mobilization.

• the sudden, illegal deposition of a government. 
• usually by a small group of the existing state establishment, typically the military.
• replace the deposed government with another body; either civil or military.

• secret corps to promote revolution.
• both organized and mobilizing.
• isn't supposed to end in war, but rather regime change.

• "tipping point" nobody knows for certain how much the regime is supported.
• people observe the actions of others, then act independently on their own in line with the actions they have observed.

• split the leading elites in order to cause a break in governing ability.
• take advantage of the weakness and move in for leadership.
• always someone within.

• domestic:
  • poverty.
  • large countries.
  • regime instability
• international:
  • weak neighbors.
  • rival neighbors.

• correlation.
• extreme poor and rich countries are different in terms of presence of government in peoples' lives.
• infrastructure issues.
• in very poor countries, rebellion is feasible in a way that's almost never feasible in rich countries like the US.

• harder to control/monitor larger groups of people.
• could be a data artifact--the more people there are, more get killed.
• if there was a threshold for % instead of an absolute number, we'd find the relationship goes away.

• if neighbor is in civil war, 85% more likely that the neighboring country will be in civil war.
• reverse neighborhood effect.

• a country may fund wars in other countries if they are rivals (example of Sudan and Libya.
• may fund wars if country isn't aligned with political views (example of US and communism).

• asymmetric information and incentives to misrepresent.
• war of attrition.
• reputation.
• commitment problems.

• governments try to demonstrate willingness to pay costs to put down insurgency.
• willingness depends on expectations of future challenges.
• more potential for future challenges will make the state being more likely to fight now.

• domestic politics and unequal conflict stakes
• agency problems

• when an outside country is aiding or engaging in war, their stake in the conflict is much smaller than the country they are occupying, which may decrease their willingness to fight or stay for extended periods of time.
• wars of attrition depend on willingness to absorb costs.

• difficulties that arise under conditions of incomplete and asymmetric information.
• when a principal hires an agent, the principal is only hiring the agent to pursue his interests.
• intervenes:
  • vis-a-vis local government.
  • within the military.
  • within the local government.

• security guarantees.
• change incentives.
• resolve information problems.
• manage inducements.
• departing train strategy.

• PKO backs terms of agreement with threats of force.

• PKO backs terms of agreement with threats to withdraw aid, recognition, etc.
• PKO monitors compliance.

• PKO monitoring assures parties that they are not being suckered.
• prevents accidents.
• parties willing to comply if others are.

• PKO leaders revise terms of agreement to meet limited, legitimate demands, but do not create an incentive for parties to become spoilers. 

• PKO administered demobilization and elections.
• marginalize greedy or radical parties.
• once weakened, will disappear or can be defeated.

• traditional (Cold War):
  • ceasefire, but no agreement.
  • accusations of babysitting/freezing conflicts.
• new peacekeeping (El Salvador model):
  • agreement in place.
  • reward political will for peace.
  • holistic/peacemaking

• camps may be controlled by warring parties:
  • aid taxed or diverted.
  • recruitment.
  • rest and medical care for fighters.
• consequences:
  • prolong war.
  • sustain groups that would otherwise have lost.
  • provides political legitimacy to militants.
  • don't even have to control displaced people.
  • government of refugees home country has power to undermine by supporting repatriation.