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*navy polaris program *nasa's space program *strategic defense iniative |
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forces driving acceptance of project |
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*the exponential growth of human knowledge *the growing demand for a broad range of complex goods and services *increased worldwide competition |
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projects tend to be large |
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*the channel tunnel or chunnel *denver international airport *panama canal expansion project *three gorges dam, chine |
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projects are getting larger over time |
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flying: balloons > planes > jets > rockets > reusable rockets |
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*more ppl are seeing the advantages of p mgmt techniques *the tools are becoming cheaper *the techniques are becoming more widely taught and written about |
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*time *cost *performance *all related on a project |
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performance, cost , time look at graph** |
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project mgmt institute PMI |
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*the major project mgmt org *founded in 1969 *grew from 7500 members in 1990 to over 260000 in 2007 *p mgmt journal and PM network are leading publications |
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*project manager is the key individual on a project *project maganer is like a mini-CEO *while project manager always has responsibility may not have necessary authority |
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trends in project management |
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*achieving strategic goals *achieving routine goals *improving project effectiveness *virtual projects *quasi-projects |
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recent changes in managing orgs |
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*consensual mgmt *systems approach *projects as preferred way to accomplish goals |
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*modern p mgmt began with the Manhattan Project *in the early days, p mgmt was used mainly for very complex projects *as the tools became better understood, they began to "trickle down" to smaller projects *it has also moved out of just manufacturing to services |
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major characteristics of a project |
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*importance *performance *life cycle with a finite due date *interdependencies *uniqueness *resources *conflict |
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*the main purpose for initiating a project is to accomplish some goal *p mgmt increases the likelihood of accomplishing that goal *p mgmt gives us someone (the PM) to spearhead the project and to hold accountable for its completion |
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*greater organizational complexity *higher probability organizational policy will be violated *says managers cannot accomplish the desired outcome *conflict |
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look at project life cycle, time dist of project effot, risk during life cycle |
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*follows the project life cycle *some topics stand-alone *other topics incorporated throughout |
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part 1: project initiation |
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*projects in contemporary orgs *strategic mgmt and project selection the PM *negotiation and the mgmt of conflict *the project in the organizational structure |
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part II: project planning |
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*project activity planning *budgeting and cost estimation *scheduling *resource allocation |
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part III: project execution |
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*monitoring and information systems *project control *project auditing *project termination |
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probs with multiple projects |
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*delays in one project delays others *inefficient use of resources *bottlenecks in resource availability |
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*30% cancelled midstream *over half are 190% over budget *over half are 220% late |
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*making sure projects closely tied to goals and strategy *how to handle growing number of projects *how to make project successful |
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*p mgmt maturity refers to mastery of skills required to manage project competently *number of ways to measure (across the project life cycle) *most orgs do not do well |
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project selection and criteria of choice |
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*project selection: -evaluating -choosing -implementing *same process as other business decisions **Look at table 2-1 pg 44 |
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catergories of companies considering projects |
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*whose core business is completing project(such as consulting firms) *whose core business is something else (manufacturing or service) |
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*companies looking at projects to do for others *looking at projects to do for themselves |
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*must select which projects they will bid on *generally based on their expertise, resource they have, their chance of winning bid *preparing a bid is expensive (time) *they dont want to waste that effort on bids where they are unlikely to be successful |
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*must decide which potential projects they will pursue *available capital is the major constraint *profitability is often the major criteria *must evaluate approaches when there is more than one project that can accomplish a goal |
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*used to select projects *simplify reality *look at key variables involved in a decision *more variables means more complicated *simple models works better *"all models are wrong. some models are useful"-George Box |
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*stochastic *deterministic |
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a model that includes the probabilities of events occurring within the model in other words the same inputs might yield different outputs at different runs. also known as probabilistic |
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a model that does not include probabilities. given the same inputs, the outputs will always be the same |
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criteria for proj selections models |
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*companies only want to undertake successful projects *projects that fail waste resources and hurt profitability and competitiveness *projects that succeed improve profitability and competitiveness *it is not possible to know ahead of time if a project will succeed or fail *in fact there is a continuum of possible results from total success through absolute failure |
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*companies need a way of weeding out the bad projects while keeping the good ones *no model can predict with absolute certainty *want a good batting average |
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*realism *capability *flexibility and adaptability *easy to use *inexpensive *easy to implement |
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*needs to include all objectives of the firm *needs to include the firms expertise as well as its limitations *report results in a fashion that allows diff projects to be compared |
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*model needs to be sophisticated enough to deal with all projects -varying resources requirements -varying time periods -varying probabiities of success *needs to be able to select the optimum projects among all contenders |
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flexibility and adaptability |
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*needs to be able to work with all projects *needs to be updated as the firm and its environment evolves |
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*needs to be quick to gather the data and easy to use (beweare of analysis paralysis) *easy to be able to fit the project in the model |
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*dont want the model to eat up all the savings that result from using the model *expenses include the cost of writing and maintaining the model *also includes the expense of gathering the data needed by the model |
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*this is less of an issue with modern spreadsheets *a model to be used to evaluate all the firm's projects should be centrally maintained |
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nature of project selection models |
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*models turn inputs into outputs *managers decide on the values for the inputs and evaluate the outputs *the inputs never fully describe the situation *the outputs never fully describe the expected results *models are tools *managers are the decision makers |
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different factos affecting outcome |
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*many factors affect the outcome of a project -one time factors (cost of an item) -reoccuring (maintenance) *not all factors are equaly important *critical factors on one project may be trivial on another project |
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types of project selection models |
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*nonnumeric models *numeric models |
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*models that do not return a numeric value for a project that can be compared with other projects *there are really not "models" but rather justification for projects *just because they are not true models does not make them all "bad" |
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types of nonnumeric models |
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*sacred cow *operating necessity *competitive necessity *product line extension *comparitive benefit |
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a project often suggested by top mgmt, that has taken on a life of its own, it continues not due to any justification but just because-- pet project |
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-a project that required in order to protect lives or property or to keep the company in operation (osha or FAA regulations) |
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-a project that is required in order to maintain the company's position in the marketplace (ex upgrade a website) |
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-often projects to expand a product line are evaluated on how well the new product meshes with the existing product line rather than on overall benefits |
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-projects are subjectively rank ordered based on their perceived benefit to the company (ben franklin method) |
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*models that return a numeric value for a project that can be easily compared with other projects *two categories -profit/profitabiity -scoring |
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*quick review of engr econ *models that look at costs and revenues (payback NPV IRR probability index) *NPV and IRR are more common |
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*the length of time until the original investment has been recouped by the project *a shorter payback period is better |
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pp = project cost/annual cash flow |
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payback periods drawbacks |
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*does not consider TVOM *more difficult to use when cash flows change over time *less meaninful over longer periods of time |
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discounted cash flow (NPV) |
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Definition
*the value of a stream of cash inflows and outflows in today's dollars *also known as discounted cash flow or just discounting *widely used to evaluate projects *includes the time value of money *includes all inflows and outflows, not just the ones through payback point |
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*requires a percentage to use to reduce furute cash flows (discount rate/hurdle rate) *the discount rate may also be known as a hurdle rate or cutoff rate *there will usually be one overall discount rate for the company |
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*discount rate (k) that casues the NPV to be equal to zero *the higher the IRR the better *requires financial calc or comp *excel- =IRR(series,guess) |
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*aka benefit cost ratio *NPV divided by initial cash investment *ratios greater than 1.0 are good |
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adv of profitability models |
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-easy to use and understand -based on accounting data and forecasts -familiar and well understood -give a go/no go indication -can be modified to include risk |
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disadv of profitbaility models |
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-ignore nonmonetary factors -some ignore time value of money -discounting models are biased to short term -payback models ignore cash flow after payback |
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-unweighted factor model -weighted factor model |
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-each factor is weighted the same -less important factors are weighted the same as important ones -easy to compute -just total or average the scores |
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-each factor is weighted relative to its importance (weighting allows important factors to stand out) -a good way to include nonnumeric data in the analysis -factors need to sum to one -all weights must be set up so higher values mean more desirable -small differences to totals are not meaninful |
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-timing of the project and its associated cash flow -risk regarding the outcome of the project -risk about the side effects |
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-pro forma financial statements -risk analysis -simulation |
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comments on the info base for selection |
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-accounting data -measurements -uncertain info |
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-cost and revenue are linear -cost revenue data derived using standard cost standardization revenue assumptions -costs may include overhead |
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-subjective vs objective -quantitive vs qualitive -reliable vs unreliable -valid vs invalid |
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-must estimate inputs for risk analysis -these inputs cant be known exactly -inputs must be adjusted over time |
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project portfolio process |
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-links projects directly to the goals and strategy of the organization -means for monitoring and controlling projects |
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identify project catergoies and criteria |
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assess resource availability |
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reduce the project and criteria set |
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prioritize the projects within catergories |
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select the projects to be funded and held in reserve |
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-a project bid -requires detailed analysis of the project -can take weeks or months to complete -may result in not bidding on the project |
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project proposals contents |
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-cover letter -exec summary -tech approach -implementation plan -the plan for logistic support and admin -past experience |
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• Leadership is a talent while management is a skill |
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because expectations are more specific, the resources are more diverse and many are not even in your department, deadlines are shorter, and no chance to do better next time if there is a problem |
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project mgmt and the project manager |
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• Product manager functions as a mini CEO • They must have a clear understanding of how the project fits into the overall org • Broad knowledge is more valuable than technical knowledge • The budget, timetable, and criteria magnify mgmt. problems on projects. |
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• Should come into the project early on • Produce as much of the project plan as possible • Helps ensure the pm buys into the plan |
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Term
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*department heads are usually functional specialists *have technical skills to evaluate all members of their org *decides who performs each task and to a certain degree how the task is performed |
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*project managers are generalists *unusual to have all of the technical skills |
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functional managers vs project mgrs |
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*FM needs technical skills while PM needs negotiational skills *FM must be skilled at analysts while PM must be skilled at synthesis *FM responsible for small area, PM responsible for bigger pic *FM is a manager while PM is a facilitator |
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*THe parent company *the project/client *the project staff |
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*proper usage of resources *timely and accurate reports *keep project sponsor informed |
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*preserve the intergrity of the project *keep the client informed of major changes |
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*very few work for PM *team disbands at the end of the project *the PM must look out for everyones future |
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*acquire adequate resources *acquire/motivate personnel *deal with obstacles *make trade offs *breadth of communication *negotiation |
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acquiring adequate resources |
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*budgets are usually inadequate *resource trade offs that need to be considered *crisis occurs that requires special resources |
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acquiring/motivating personnel |
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*most project workers are borrowed from FM *PM negotiates with FM for workers |
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*every project is unique *the PM will face crises *a big problem is scope creep *early probs associated with resources *later probs are schedule and technical changes and what happens to proj team when done |
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*cost *time *performance *picking projects *proj/org goals *project, firm, career |
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well understood project -appear simple -natural flow introduces problems |
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poorly understood projects -many difficulties early on -most are planning problem -may have psychic consequences |
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*why project exists *some projects fail *top mgmt support needed *info network needed *must be flexible |
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*acquiring adequate resources *motivation personnel *deal with obstacles *making trade offs *handling failure *maintaining communications |
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*credibility *sensitivity *leadership, ethics, and mgmt style *ability to handle stress |
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*techinical *administrative |
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*political *interpersonal *technically |
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cultural differences problems |
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*need to adapt to social/cultural environment *problems in international countries |
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*technology *institutions *language *aesthetic values |
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*time *staffing projects *knowledge of people |
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institutional environments |
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*socioeconomic *legal *business cycle *technolically |
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socioeconomic environment |
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*deal with local gov *local gov is interested in citizens *must honor local customs |
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*diff countries/regions have diff legal structures *the project must conform to those laws *projects may also have to conform to US law *ownership of the project *patents *copyrights, trademarks, trade secrets |
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the business cycle as an environment |
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*can be differnt in diff environments *differences in cost of living, uneployment, average income, work day |
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technological environment |
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*other countries less advanced *affects technology available *local workers wont understand technology |
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*logistics is hard to transfer personnel abroad *language and education present comm problems |
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*PMs must avoid this on projects as all stakeholders are interrelated |
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principles of negotiation |
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*negotiation skills are the biggest skills needed by the PM *must negotiate to get the project *negotiate with line managers to get work done *negotiate to solve conflicts |
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*resolve conflict without major damage to project objectives *foster honesty btwn negotiators *must seek a mutually agreeable solution |
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partnering, chartering, and change |
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Definition
*use of subcontractors *use of input from two or more functional units *mgmt of change |
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*project firm and subcontractors are at odds on a project *project firm wants high quality and low cost *subcontractors want high profits and maximum flexibility |
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project partnering definition |
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a method of transforming contractual relationships into a cohesive, cooperative project team with a single set of goals and established procedures for resolving disputes in a timely and effective manner |
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steps to project partnering |
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Definition
*project firm must commit to partnering *all partners must implement the process *joint review when finished |
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project firm commit to partnering |
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*select subcontractors to include *joint team-building exercises *project charter |
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*joint evaluation of project progress *a method for resolving disagreements *continuous improvement *suport from senior mgmt |
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*setting this up requires a lot of negotiation *this negotiation cannot be adversarial in nature *it has worked well in some settings |
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a written agreement that outlines the specifics of the project |
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*usually between all of the groups providing people or other resources to the project *agreeing to a charter implies members will not make changes without consulting the others |
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*initial assessment was wrong *project team learns more about the project *change is mandated *client asks for changes |
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*budget *schedule *performance *priorities |
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conflict and the project life cycle |
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*R&D *market introduction *growth *maturity *deterioration *death |
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know project life cycle (ch 4 pg 4 slide 4) |
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Definition
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Definition
*different goals and expectations *uncertainty about authority *interpersonal conflict |
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Definition
*conflict centers around the confusion of starting a new project *conflicts cannot be avoided at this phase *much of this conflict is good conflict |
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handling project formation conflict |
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*technical objectives must be set *senior and line mgmt must commit to the project *the priority of the project must be set *organizational structure of project must be established |
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Definition
*conflicts tend to be technical in nature *conflicts tend to be btwn project manager and line managers |
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Definition
*many conflicts are over schedule *tasks may be late and schedule to be adjusted *the more complex the project the more conflicts occur *also technical conflicts |
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*deadlines are a major source of conflict *technical probs are rare *personality conflicts will be a big deal due to time pressures |
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