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Political Science Methods
Basics of methodology: DV/IV, theory/hypothesis, etc
62
Political Studies
Undergraduate 2
10/21/2012

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Term
Empirical
Definition
: information acquired by means of observation or experimentation
Term
Normative
Definition
opinion
Term
Unit of Analysis
Definition
the type or levels of political actors to which the hypothesis is thought to apply
Term
Theory
Definition
a body of statements that systemize knowledge and explain phenomenon
Term
Hypothesis
Definition
derived from theory, makes a specific prediction that can be empirically verified. It predicts that 1+ causal factors will produce a single effect.
Term
components of a hypothesis (4)
Definition
Unit of analysis
Independent variable
Dependent variable
Direction of influence
Term
Your hypothesis should not: (2)
Definition
Give a value judgment
Be immediately verifiable (e.g., be a fact)
Term
Your hypothesis should: (6)
Definition
Be an empirical statement
Be testable
Have an explicit comparison
State a direction of influence
State a unit of analysis
Have clear concepts
Term
Independent Variable
Definition
explanatory/treatment/control
Term
Dependent Variable
Definition
outcome
Term
External Validity
Definition
the validity of generalized inferences in scientific studies, usually based on experiments as experimental validity—extent to which the results of a study can be generalized to other situations and to other people
Term
Internal Validity
Definition
the ability to show that variate of the independent variable actually causes the dependent variable to change
Term
5 criterion for showing causality
Definition
#1: temporal ordering: the IV must occur before the DV
#2: correlation: two variables are correlated when changes in the variable occur together with changes in the other
#3: causal mechanism: you have to be able to tell a plausible story that connects the IV to the DV (often includes an intervening variable” that gets us from IV to the DV
#4: rule out confounds: we can say that X and Y are confounded when there is a third variable that influences both X and Y
#5: correct unit of analysis: ecological fallacy: the use of data at an aggregate level of analysis to draw inferences about individuals
Term
Intervening Variable
Definition
: gets us from the IV to the DV
Term
Confounding Variable:
Definition
causes changes in the DV, is correlated w/the IV, and is “casually prior” to that independent variable—chronologically or logically, it comes first
Term
Temporal Ordering)
Definition
: the IV must occur before the DV
Term
Random Assignment
Definition
: split cases into 2+ groups of 30+ through a process that’s truly random—using a random # generator is key
Term
Control Group
Definition
: placebo group
Term
Treatment Group
Definition
: gets treated!
Term
Experiment: (4 steps
Definition
#1: random assignment
#2: pretest: to check how the random assignment process worked, measure the value that the DV takes on for each case before any treatment has been applied. Each group should average about the same values of DV.
#3: apply the treatment
#4: post-test
Term
Natural Experiment:
Definition
nature assigns cases to control and treatment groups in some nearly random manner
Term
Field Experiment
Definition
: researcher assigns cases to control and treatment groups randomly in a real-world setting
Term
Quasi-Experiment
Definition
: scientists merely observe 2+ groups of cases that have been treated differently; may often be referred to as an “observational study”
Term
Convergent Validity
Definition
: refers to the degree to which two measures of constructs that theoretically should be related are related: established if two similar constructs correspond with one another
Ex) participants rate how well they sleep and are also video recorded; convergent validity means that the two scores are similar
Term
Divergent Validity
Definition
: indicates that the results obtained by an instrument do not correlate to strongly with measurements of a similar but distinct trait
Important because it is common to come up with an operational definition for a construct that actually measures more than one construct (e.g. trying to measure for anger and accidentally also measuring for depression)
Ex) sleep quality and sleep quantity
Term
Operational Definition
Definition
: complete recipe for going out into the world and measuring a variable
Term
Cross Sectional Research Design
Definition
: make comparisons across cases (ex states)
Term
Time Series Research Design
Definition
: make comparisons over time
Term
Measured Value
Definition
: true value + bias (validity) + random error (reliability)
The most worrisome measurement issues must be correlated with the independent variable in order to lead to false positives; most measurement problems will bias your research in the direction of not finding a significant result
Term
Measurement Validity
Definition
: degree of correspondence between measures
Term
Measurement Reliability
Definition
: the extent to which an experimental test or any measuring procedure yields the same results on repeated trials
Term
History Threat
Definition
: something that happens during the course of the experiment that externally threatens the test
Term
Contamination Threat:
Definition
control and experimental group interact
Term
Regression to the Mean Threat:
Definition
if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on a second measurement and—if it is extreme on a second measurement, I will tend to have been closer to the average on the first measurement
Term
Hawthorne Effect:
Definition
people act differently by dint of being tested
Term
Maturation Threat:
Definition
subjects grow and change
Term
Random Sampling:
Definition
one chosen by a method involving an unpredictable component
Term
"Controlling" for:
Definition
setting other things constant
Term
Histogram:
Definition
a graphical representation showing a visual impression of the distribution of data—it’s an estimate of the probability distribution of a continuous variable
Term
Bar Chart
Definition
: visual representation of chronological data
Term
Box and Whiskers
Definition
: bottom and top of the box are always the 25th and 75th percentile (the lower and upper quartiles) and the band near the middle of the box is the 50th percentile; the ends of the whiskers can represent several possible alternative values—upper and lower extremes
Term
Density
Definition
: function of both the bin-width and the proportion (proportion/bin-width)
Term
Frequency
Definition
: how often something occurs
Term
Sample
Definition
: subset of the population which is used to gain information about te whole population
Term
Population:
Definition
entire group of cases about which you want information
Term
Statistic:
Definition
number describing a sample; statistics vary from sample to sample
Term
Parameter:
Definition
number describing a population, usually a mystery
Term
Nominal:
Definition
you can put cases into a category, but can’t specify an order or relationship between the categories (ex. Religion: Catholic, Protestant, Mormon Jewish)
Dummy variables: variables that only take on two values, usu coded as 0 and 1
Term
Ordinal:
Definition
you can put cases into different categories and order the categories (ex. Strength of religious belief)
Differences between numbers don’t mean anything: values between numbers don’t correspond to actual value
Term
Interval:
Definition
not only can you order the categories of the variable, you can specify the difference (ex. Calendar years and temperature)
Term
Ratio
Definition
interval measure but 0= absence of the measured thing (ex. Income)
Term
Mean
Definition
: average
Term
Median
Definition
: 50th percentile (if you’re in-between, go for the average)
Term
Mode:
Definition
most commonly occurring number (if there’s two most-commonly occurring numbers, they’re both modes)
Term
Range
Definition
how spread out the data is (highest number – lowest number)
Term
Interquartile Range:
Definition
from your 25th percentile to your 75th percentile; cuts off outliers (find the median, find the medians of either side of the median, subtract the two from each other)
Term
Standard Deviation:
Definition
shows how much variation or dispersion exits from the average (low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the mean)
Term
Measures of Central Tendency:
Definition
any of a number of ways of specifying a central value—average of set measurements. A measure of central tendency is a measure that tells us where the middle of a bunch of data lies. The three most common measures of central tendency are the mean, median, and the mode.
Term
Measures of Dispersion:
Definition
describing the spread of the data or its variation around a central value--range
Term
Skewed Right:
Definition
hump w/ tail on the right; means that the mean is greater than the median, represents extreme values that are pulling the values to the right
Term
Skewed Left:
Definition
hump w/ tail on the left, means that the median is greater than the mean
Term
Margin of Error:
Definition
how the sample deviates from the population
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