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| What is the Science of Political Science? |
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Definition
Causal Inference
Policy- Implications require causal explanation |
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Definition
Epistemology:
the theory of knowledge, esp. with regard to its methods, validity, and scope. Epistemology is the investigation of what distinguishes justified belief from opinion.
Daily Experience, Tradition, Authority, Mutual Agreement, Observation (Empirics) |
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| Observation Versus Other ways to know |
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Definition
Verifiable and repeatable
Falsification
Probability |
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Study of Politics based on theory and observation
Seeks to generalize from observations |
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| Goal of Scientific Research? |
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Definition
Inference (Both causal and descriptive)
definition: best "guess" about an unknown given known information |
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| Unknown causal relation between two or more variables |
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Unknown fact about a single variable
Inference is by definition uncertain |
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| Causation can not be observed: it can only be inferred |
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| When the values of two or more variables tend to move together |
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| Valid Causal Inference requires: |
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Definition
1: theory that expects X to effect Y and
2: Evidence of correlation between X and Y
All causal inferences are uncertain |
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Definition
| Change in the value of one concept tends to produce change in the value of another concept |
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| Causation (X cause Y) implies correlation (Values of X and Y tend to move together) But... |
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Definition
| Correlation does not imply causation |
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| Deterministic Causal Relation: |
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Definition
Cause X is always present when Y occurs
Outcome follows cause without exception |
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Definition
| Deterministic (law of gravity) |
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| Probabilistic causal relation: |
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Cause X usually present when outcome Y occurs
Outcome occurs with some likelihood when cause is present. |
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| Political Science seeks to identify: |
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Definition
| Probabilistic Causal Relationships |
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Definition
Good description offers us a profile of interest including:
Unit of interest (individuals, states, countries)
Variation
Both quantitative and qualitative judgments |
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Term
| Description is not the goal of science, what is? |
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Definition
| Explanation of causal relationships is the goal |
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Term
| Why can't we just observe as scientists? |
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Definition
| Observation without theory is inadequate for causal inference. |
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Term
| Why must theory be coupled with observation? |
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Definition
So that observations are accurate
So no overgeneralizations are made
So that observation is not selective
To ensure logical reasoning |
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Term
| What is required to draw a valid causal inference? |
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Definition
| Logical and empirical support |
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| Criteria of Scientific Method |
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Definition
Evidence
Are the relevant data consistent with the expectations of your theory?
Reason:
Do the hypotheses from your theory follow from your assumption? |
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Term
| Requirements for Scientific Study of Politics |
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Definition
Analyze the real world (not counterfactuals)
Think in terms of concepts (or constructs) not proper nouns.
Propose testable causal relationships among concepts |
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| Fallacy of Affirming the Consequent |
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Definition
If A, then B <-- Hypothesis
Observe B <-- Evidence
Conclude A is true <-- Fallacy
If the evidence is consistent with our theory, we infer that our theory is not wrong: we failed to falsify the theory. |
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| Answers the questions of: What causes something and why? |
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| A set of interconnected statements that identify what causes something and why |
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| The something being caused (effect or outcome) |
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| The suspected cause of change/effect |
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| Theory First, then empirical testing |
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| Observation first, then theory to construction to explain the observed |
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| an expectation about what we will observe |
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| X&Y move in the same direction |
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| X&Y move in opposite directions |
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| A hypothesis is a _______ proposition |
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| More explicit hypotheses are _____ to reject |
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| The expectation of no relationship between two concepts ( X ^ and Y varies randomly) |
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| What is implied by every hypothesis |
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| Statistical Hypothesis testing relies on what? |
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| Rejection of the null hypothesis |
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| Rejection of the null hypothesis allows us to... |
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| Accept the validity of the initial hypothesis |
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| It must be possible, in principle, to collect and evaluate evidence that permits us to demonstrate that the hypothesis is not consistent with the evidence. |
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| It must be possible, in principle, to collect and evaluate evidence that permits us to demonstrate that the hypothesis is not consistent with the evidence. |
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| Provisional & Future evidence may lead us to accept the null hypothesis |
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| Can a theory be fully "proven" |
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Definition
| No, it is provisional and subject to change |
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Definition
Measurement
Permits us to examine data and evaluate co-variation |
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| A set of instructions that describe how to measure the value of that concept |
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| Do your results match the concept? |
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| Do we get the same value when measurement is repeated? |
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| Error can be broken into two parts which are... |
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Definition
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| Tendency to assign values that are either too high or too low |
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| Equal likelihood of assigning too high and too low values |
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| Process of Theory Construction and Evaluation |
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Definition
Identify a question or puzzle
Identify the dependent variable (effected)
Propose a causal explanation (theory)
Identify the independent variables (effect)
State the hypothesis
Identify null hypothesis
Operationalize the concepts (collect data)
Test the hypothesis
Re-evaluate the theory given results |
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