Term
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Definition
(political & economic satellites of USSR)
Poland, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania |
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Term
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Definition
(republics of USSR)
Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belorussia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia |
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Term
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Definition
(independent of USSR)
Solvenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Macedonia, Albania, satellite of Yugoslavia |
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Term
| What is a natural experiment? |
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Definition
| It is a situation in which the event of interest occurs in all cases (in this case democratic transition), but many key variables are held constant. |
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Term
| Events in the region create a "natural experiment" |
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Definition
| two of the most important predictors of successful democratization are held constant -- the state of the economy AND prior democratic experience |
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Term
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Definition
| Poland, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, (Romanian part of ) Moldova, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Macedonia |
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Term
| 70 plus years under communism |
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Definition
| Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia, (Ukrainian part of ) Moldova |
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Term
| Attempts to create stable prosperous states in Eastern Europe |
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Definition
1st attempt- after WWI (1918)
2nd attempt- after WWII (1945)
3rd attempt- After Cold War (1989) |
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Term
| First attempt: After World War I (1918) |
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Definition
Effort to create democratic nation-states
Driving forces: US, Britain and France
Failed |
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Term
| Second attempt: After World War II (1945) |
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Definition
Effort to create communist states
Driving force: Soviet Union
Single-party communist regimes established throughout the region
Partially successful |
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Term
| Third attempt: After Cold War (1989) |
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Definition
“Advanced industrialized democracies”
Driving force: European Union (EU)
Successful so far |
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Term
| Why did the post-WWI effort to create democratic nation-states fail? |
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Definition
1. CEE was ethnically heterogeneous
2.Poverty, illiteracy, ‘backwardness’
3.Well-armed, trained military
4.Great Depression (starting 1929) |
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Term
| CEE was ethnically heterogeneous |
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Definition
-many nationalities
-Most had at least 1/4 to 1/3 of population dispersed throughout Eastern Europe
-Jews and Gypsies (Roma) had no geographic home and were most vulnerable |
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Term
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Definition
-National self-determination meant that ONE ethnic group formed the basis for the new countries.
-Each country had several minority ethnic populations.
-Germans were now living in Poland and Czechoslovakia
-Germany’s excuse for invasions of 1938 (Czechoslovakia) and 1939 (Poland) |
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Term
| Poverty, illiteracy, economically backward |
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Definition
-Eastern Europe (except Czechoslovakia) was pre-industrial/ pre-modern
-2/3’s of population are “peasants” – descendants of serfs
-Very difficult for democracy to succeed in such a society |
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Term
| Well-armed and trained military |
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Definition
-Military, officers especially, remained after WWI: Well-trained, unemployed
-Radically nationalistic, anti-Semitic
-Anti-Semitism is prejudice, even hatred of Jews
-Extremely strong in Eastern Europe at that time
-Roving bands of militants in each country, esp. Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania.
-Society made up of mostly peasants, small number of extremely wealthy landowners, and the well-armed and unemployed military |
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Term
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Definition
1929 through the 1930s
Economic catastrophe throughout the region and in Germany |
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Term
| Democratic Experience 1918 to 1938/39 |
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Definition
Czechoslovakia, 20 years
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia: 10 years then fascism
Poland, 6 years then military rule
Bulgaria, 3 years then fascism |
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Term
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Definition
| Hungary and Romania (adopted fascism), Yugoslavia, Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia, Moldova (part of USSR and Romania) |
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Term
| Impacted of WWII - invaded by Germany |
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Definition
Czechoslovakia and Poland in 1939.
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia in 1941
USSR in 1941
Yugoslavia in 1941 |
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Term
| Impacted of WWII- joined Germany |
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Definition
Hungary in 1940
Romania in 1940
Bulgaria in 1941 |
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Term
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Definition
Most of the countries are occupied by Soviet Red Army
Exceptions: Yugoslavia and Albania
Aristocracy is wiped out
Military is wiped out
Minorities are gone
Germans forced to repatriate (12 million)
Jewish population almost completely destroyed in the holocaust (6 million)
Only the peasants remain |
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Term
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Definition
| Economic stagnation and backwardness Gorbachev |
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Term
|
Definition
One party rule
-No competitive elections
-Censorship of press
-Restrictions on travel and personal freedom
State run, planned economy
-Industrialization occurred
-Emphasis on heavy industry
-Collectivization of agriculture |
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Term
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Definition
| Private property and private enterprise were illegal, agriculture totally collectivized |
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Term
| Satellites: Formal communism |
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Definition
| No private property, but small scale private enterprise was allowed, agriculture a mix of private and collectivized |
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Term
| Yugoslavia: Mild communism |
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Definition
| Some private property and private enterprise, no collectivization, more personal freedom |
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Term
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Definition
Stalin, 1945 - 1953
Malenkov and Beria, 1953 |
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Term
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Definition
Khrushchev, 1954 – 1964
Increased the USSR’s investment into the economies of its East European satellites |
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Term
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Definition
Creation of socialist economic and political networks
CMEA (Council for Mutual Economic Assistance)
Warsaw Pact, signed by members May 1955
Signatories were committed to “mutual defense if attacked”.
And, relations among signatories were based on “mutual noninterference in internal affairs”. |
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Term
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Definition
Brezhnev, 1964 – 1982 (‘Brezhnev Doctrine’ 1968)
Tightened Soviet control over economies and politics in the satellite countries.
Invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968 to defend “socialism" |
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Term
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Definition
| Soviet military interference if country deviates from communism |
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Term
| 1980s: Soviet economy in decline |
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Definition
Expenditure on military – 1/3 GDP?
Technological backwardness
Increasing cost of empire
Declining price of oil and natural gas
Affected member republics and satellites in Eastern Europe – economic decline |
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Term
| Comparison of Initial Step in Satellites vs. former USSR |
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Definition
Satellites: Peaceful collapse of communism and easy adopting of new constitution, except in Romania.
Former USSR:
Peaceful collapse, adoption of interwar constitutions in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia
Peaceful collapse but intense struggle over new constitutions in Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia and Moldova. |
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Term
| Step 1: Adopt a new constitution |
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Definition
Constitution has been defined as the “rules of the game”.
•
A democracy is consolidated when all of the key players accept the rules of the game. |
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Term
| Two main problems with poor constitutions: |
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Definition
–Vagueness
–Overly strong executive |
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Term
| Executive/legislative relations |
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Definition
-Parliamentary
•Executive is the prime minister
–Presidential
•Executive is the president
–Semi-presidential (a combination of presidential and parliamentary systems)
•There are two executives, a president and a prime minister |
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Term
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Definition
-One national election to parliament
•A majority in parliament elects the prime minister and cabinet (the “executive”) (vote of ‘investiture’)
•The prime minister and cabinet (usually called the “government”) can be dismissed AT ANY TIME by majority vote
–The “vote of no confidence”
The government (including the prime minister and cabinet) drafts laws and presents to parliament
•Parliament passes laws
•The government oversees implementation of laws
•The head of state is weak; all executive power rests with the prime minister and cabinet |
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Term
| The essence of all parliamentary systems |
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Definition
-The government is responsible to parliament
-The prime minister is almost always the head of the largest party in parliament |
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Term
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Definition
•
President is directly elected
•
Legislature is also directly elected
•Cabinet is responsible to president
–President appoints cabinet; leg confirms
•Legislature drafts AND passes laws
•President is head of state: powers of the president vary depending on the constitution
•The “head of government” is undefined |
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Term
| The essence of all presidential systems |
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Definition
| Institutional separation of executive and legislature |
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Term
| Executive powers: Presidents |
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Definition
Strength of President depends on powers laid out in constitution
-Articulates presidential agenda and initiatives, but only the legislature drafts and passes laws
-Selects cabinet with or without legislative approval |
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Term
| Executive power: Prime Ministers |
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Definition
Strength of Prime Minister depends on the seatshare of the prime minister’s party
–Parliamentary system
•Government, headed by prime minister, drafts laws and presents to parliament for debate and passage
•The prime minister implements his/her agenda directly, no need for a veto
•If parliament passes a law NOT supported by the prime minister, it is taken as a vote of no confidence and the government resigns.
•Oversees bureaucratic depts. that implements laws
–cabinet ministers head these bureaucracies |
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Term
|
Definition
Two executives:
–Head of State – the president, directly elected
•Articulates presidential agenda and initiatives
–Head of Government – the prime minister, elected by and responsible to parliament
•Government drafts laws, submits to parliament for debate and passage, must maintain the ‘confidence’ of the parliament
-Parliament is directly elected
–Passes laws
–Confirms cabinet (government) |
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Term
| The mixed system is defined by the powers of the president |
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Definition
•Legislative powers:
–Veto, decree, referendum
•Executive power:
–Cabinet appointment and dismissal, and dissolution of parliament |
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Term
| In semi-presidential systems, either the president is dominant OR the prime minister is dominant |
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Definition
–President-parliamentary (Russia & Ukraine)
•President is dominant
–Premier-presidential (Poland & Romania)
•Prime minister is dominant |
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Term
| Who writes the constitution |
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Definition
Historical circumstances determined who participated in drafting CEE constitutions.
-In some countries, important political actors met together to draft a new constitution
-Negotiated or ‘pacted’ transitions
-In other countries, one actor dominated the constitution-writing process (e.g. Russia)
-Non-negotiated transitions
-It is also possible for constitutions to be adopted in a piecemeal fashion; also non-negotiated transitions (e.g. Ukraine, Moldova) |
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Term
| Why is a particular system chosen |
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Definition
Who are the actors?
-Party leaders
-Reformed communist parties
-Newly formed opposition parties and popular movements
-Presidents elected before the collapse |
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Term
| Need to know characteristics of actors |
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Definition
Number
Bargaining strength |
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Term
|
Definition
-Party leaders seek rules that will maximize their chances of winning office in first democratic elections.
-Presidents seek to maximize their power vis-à-vis other institutions, usually the legislature.
-Unreformed communists seek to maintain the old system and resist constitutional reform |
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Term
| Non-negotiated transitions |
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Definition
(Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus)
Russia:
-President Yeltsin elected before collapse of USSR
-Current constitution put in place in 1993
-Written by President Yeltsin’s advisors
-Semi-presidential system with very strong president
Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus:
-Constitutional reform was delayed
-Mimicked Russian example of semi-presidentialism with very strong president |
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Term
| How and why is a system chosen/designed |
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Definition
-The more forces/parties involved in negotiations, the more likely is parliamentarism, and presence of an elected president at the time, increased likelihood of semi-presidentialism.
-Prior experience with constitutionalism and influence of W. Europe led to widespread adoption of forms of parliamentary systems. |
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Term
| Does the choice of system make a difference for democratization |
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Definition
| Democratization in presidential systems is, empirically, more likely to fail (Svolik 2008) |
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Term
| Presidential and legislative power are inversely related: WHY? |
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Definition
High veto override strengthens the president, weakens the legislature
Presidential decree power and power to call a referendum reduces legislative dominance of law-making
President’s power to choose cabinet or prime minister comes at expense of parliament
President’s ability to dissolve legislature weakens the legislature |
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Term
| Theory of Rules of the Electoral System |
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Definition
| Electoral rules help determine the number of parties in a country’s party system. |
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Term
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Definition
2 party – majority party controls the government
Multiparty – coalition of parties controls the government |
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Term
| Parliamentary systems: Multiparty |
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Definition
Large number of parties in system (5 to 8).
No dominant party; frequent changes in executive
Small number of parties in system (3 to 5).
One or two parties larger than others; coalitions anchored by one large party; infrequent changes in executive |
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Term
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Definition
| 2 party – French example – president and prime minister will often b e from same party |
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Term
| Semipresidential systems:Multiparty |
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Definition
| Multiparty – coalition of parties controls government; president and prime minister will RARELY be from same party |
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Term
|
Definition
-District magnitude (seats per district)
-Number of votes per voter
-Criteria for winning (plurality/majority)?
-Runoff criteria?
-For proportional representation:
-Closed vs. open list
-Mathematical formula used to translate votes into seats
-Electoral threshold |
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Term
| Impact of electoral rules on party system: Single member district systems |
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Definition
| Restrict the number of parties that can win seats in the national legislature(s) |
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Term
| Impact of electoral rules on party system: Proportional representation |
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Definition
Permits more parties to gain seats in the national legislature(s)
District magnitude can range from 3 to total seats in parliament (seats allocated proportionally within districts)
Electoral threshold can range from 0% to 7% (or, technically, even higher; typical threshold is 4-5%) |
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Term
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Definition
-Key rule of unanimity: Every party has veto power
-Historical parties and Fidesz wanted PR
-Alliance of Free Democrats wanted SMDM
-Hungarian Democratic Forum wanted mixed SMDM/ PR electoral system
-Compromised on Mixed PR/SMDM
-No resolution on Presidency – delay tactics approved. |
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Term
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Definition
-Small parties preferred PR
-Larger parties/movements preferred SMD
-In general (were exceptions):
-When all negotiators were ‘small’ – PR
-Where had mix of small and large parties – either PR or Mixed SMD/PR
Implication: ALL CEE countries adopted systems that encouraged multi-party competition |
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Term
| Implication: ALL CEE countries adopted systems that encouraged multi-party competition |
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Definition
PR allows small parties to gain seats (parties get approximately same proportion of seats as votes)
Result: Multi-partiism
SMD allows larger parties to win at expense of small parties BUT implications of Mixed SMD/PR not easy to predict.
In general, Mixed SMD/PR systems encourage multi-partiism |
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Term
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Definition
| First (legislative) elections after collapse of authoritarian regime – until transfer of power occurs |
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Term
| Four possible outcomes of founding elections |
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Definition
After first election, winning party creates a new authoritarian system (Belarus)
Several elections are held, but same party always wins. Gradual creation of new authoritarian system (Russia)
Several elections are held, but none results in a legitimate transfer of power (Ukraine, Moldova, Albania)
After one or more elections, a transfer of power occurs, and the losing party steps down. Democracy is becoming consolidated. |
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Term
| Characteristics of founding elections |
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Definition
Quality of founding elections, especially first election, varies
Equal opportunity for all parties to compete?
Free press?
Weak/moderate presidents AND negotiated transition made these more likely… |
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Term
| Can we characterize the quality of the founding elections? |
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Definition
Polity measures institutional features of democracy
Institutions and procedures through which citizens can express effective preferences about alternative policies and leaders, & constraints on executive
Coders
Freedom House measures freedom
Political rights and civil liberties
Surveys of country experts |
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Term
|
Definition
| voters, politicians, and parties |
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Term
|
Definition
|
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Term
|
Definition
Wannabe politicians
No experience competing in elections
Who are they?
Former communists
Opposition leaders
Private citizens |
|
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Term
| Three main types of party |
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Definition
Pro-democracy parties
Former communist parties (in process of moderating their ideology and image)
Single-issue parties |
|
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Term
| Issues of First Campaign, in order of importance |
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Definition
Democracy and human rights
Freedom of press, speech, open borders, no political prisoners
THE MAIN ISSUE of the campaign
Rights of ethnic minority populations
What to do with the files and informers of the secret police?
Market/economic reform: Not yet an important issue |
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Term
| First Elections: The Opposition |
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Definition
| The NON-communist parties that arose in our country cases either BEFORE or AFTER the collapse of the communist regime. |
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Term
| The Former Communist Parties |
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Definition
Changed their names
Got rid of ‘hardliners’
Younger leaders contested the elections |
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Term
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Definition
| Many parties gain seats. But, there are two main winners. |
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Term
|
Definition
Pro-democracy ‘opposition’ parties
Former communist parties |
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Term
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Definition
New social democratic parties
Peasant/pensioner parties
Women’s parties |
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Term
| Characteristics of the state-run ‘command economy’ |
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Definition
-State controls production of goods and services
-Prices set by state, but extremely low
-Efficiency and profitability are foreign concepts
-No unemployment (no bankruptcy)
-People are guaranteed:
-Job
-Place to live
-Free medical care and education
-Incomes are pretty equal |
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Term
| Situation for newly elected leaders |
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Definition
| Prime Ministers and their cabinets were shocked at the severity of the economic crisis facing their country |
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Term
| Two Options: situation for newly elected leaders |
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Definition
Two options:
-Embrace West European style market reform
-Try to find a ‘third way’
-Not socialism
-Not the market |
|
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Term
|
Definition
Liberalization
Macroeconomic stabilization
Privatization |
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Term
|
Definition
Remove all price controls
Remove trade barriers to foster competition |
|
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Term
| Macroeconomic stabilization |
|
Definition
Reduce/control inflation
End government subsidies/tax credits/etc. |
|
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Term
|
Definition
Privatize state property
Encourage foreign investment /ownership
Encourage new entrepreneurship |
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Term
| Situation for Second Elections: Dominated by the economy |
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Definition
-Economic reform has either BEGUN or NOT begun
-Not many are better off, YET
-Realities of reform
-Prices rising
-Unemployment
-Inequality
Realities of NOT reforming
-Inflation
-Wages not getting paid or not keeping pace with inflation
-Poverty increasing |
|
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Term
| Changes in Party Platforms |
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Definition
-Opposition parties that supported market reform must defend their policies:
-They are no longer the opposition
-Many split into several new parties (gradual vs. rapid reform)
-Ethnic parties have become more strident/extreme
-Nationalist parties appear
-In many countries, the former communist parties are now the ‘opposition’ |
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Term
| How do we think about party systems in political science |
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Definition
-Number of parties = size of party system
-More parties gain votes than gain seats.
-Which parties count?
-Parties that gain votes in national election?
-Parties that gain seats in national legislature? |
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Term
|
Definition
-Number of parties in the party system
-Vote share: “Number of parties in the electorate”
-Seat share: “Number of parties in parliament”
-If we measure by seat share, we incorporate impact of electoral rules. |
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Term
|
Definition
| Difference between votes and seats. |
|
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Term
| Disproportional vs. Proportional Electoral Systems |
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Definition
-Single member district systems are highly disproportional
-Proportional systems are highly proportional, but
-In PR, electoral thresholds reduce proportionality |
|
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Term
|
Definition
Vote share of parties = popularity
Seat share of parties = strength
The ‘largest party’ is the party that got the most seats. |
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Term
| Weight each party by either vote share or seat share |
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Definition
-Effective number of parties in party system
-Vote share: “Effective number of parties in the electorate”
-Include all parties that obtained votes in election
-Seat share: “Effective number of parties in parliament”
-Include all parties that obtained seats in parliament
Which do you use? |
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Term
| Effective number of parties’ in the party system |
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Definition
Formula:
Square the seat share (or vote share) of each party that obtained seats (or votes).
Add these squared values together.
Take the reciprocal (divide into 1). |
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Term
|
Definition
Party systems in CEE generally have a lot of parties (Reich)
Why so many parties?
-PR is important
Successful democratization occurring in countries with 2-7 ‘effective parties in parliament’.
Problems: Cases with too few or too many parties
-Albania and Moldova (<2)
-Ukraine and Russia (>7) |
|
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Term
| Other ways to quantify characteristics of a party system |
|
Definition
-% votes or seats of largest party
-What does this tell us?
-% votes or seats of second largest party
-What does this tell us?
-Total % votes of parties that get less than 10% of the vote each (small parties).
-What does this tell us?
-What kind of party system would have a high proportion of votes going to “small” parties |
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Term
| Ideology of parties and coalition government |
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Definition
-Each party has its own ‘ideology’
-Positions on issues
-Positions on the economy
-The government in a parliamentary system includes ideologically distinct parties
-Leftist governments -> leftist policies
-Rightist governments -> rightist policies
-Center Left and Center Right governments -> centrist policies
-Far right governments -> nationalist policies |
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Term
| Institutionalization of party systems |
|
Definition
An institutionalized party system is one in which the parameters of competition are stable over time:
-number of parties
-ideology of parties
-vote share of parties |
|
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Term
|
Definition
| A measure of the institutionalization of the party system |
|
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Term
| Vote share changes for two reasons |
|
Definition
-Voters switch parties – changes in voter preferences
-Parties disappear or new ones appear between elections – changes in the parties competing |
|
|
Term
| Very high “electoral volatility” in CEE |
|
Definition
| Electoral volatility in CEE is among highest of any region where democratization has occurred (Bielasiak). |
|
|
Term
| Characteristics of party systems in CEE |
|
Definition
-Proportional representation alone or as a component of a mixed PR/SMD system
-Many parties elected to parliament
-High values for Effective Number of Parties in Parliament
-High electoral volatility |
|
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Term
| Why does turnout vary across countries? |
|
Definition
-If “participatory culture” matters, why is turnout low in the US?
-Compulsory voting
-Impact of election (the stakes)
-Multipartism
-Unicameralism
-National level contests
-Concurrent elections |
|
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Term
| Why does turnout vary across countries |
|
Definition
Compulsory voting – increases turnout
Impact of election (the stakes)
-Multipartiism – reduces turnout
-Unicameralism – increases turnout
-National level contests – increases turnout
-Concurrent elections – increases turnout |
|
|
Term
| Impact of election (the stakes) |
|
Definition
Multipartism – reduces turnout
Unicameralism – increases turnout
National level contests – increases turnout
Concurrent elections – increases turnou |
|
|
Term
| Economic conditions (esp. relevant in developing democracies |
|
Definition
Theory: Poverty and recession reduce turnout
Turnout in Africa is lower than elsewhere
Turnout in Latin America about the same
Evidence is inconclusive |
|
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Term
| Why the decline in turnout across Eastern Europe |
|
Definition
| Disenchantment with democracy |
|
|
Term
| Disenchantment with democracy |
|
Definition
Initial enthusiasm and high expectations
Disenchantment when participation did not result in increased well-being. |
|
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Term
| How do they capture (measure) causes of disenchantment? |
|
Definition
GDP
GDP growth
Unemployment
Human Development Index (GDP, Life Expectancy, Years Schooling)
Freedom House |
|
|
Term
| What is the “stakes” based theory? |
|
Definition
Voter turnout varies according to the stakes (or impact) of the election.
In presidential systems, turnout will be higher for presidential elections.
In parliamentary system, turnout will be high for parliamentary elections
In mixed system, turnout will generally be higher for the parliamentary election IF the president is weak (recall idea of presidential power) |
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