The forecasting technique that works best for short planning horizons is _____.

Which of the following statements does NOT fit with the Delphi method?

For Questions #4 and #5

Using the data shown below in Table 3 for the sales of a new CD at a store for the last 4 weeks, answer the questions from #4 and #5.

Table 3

more than 110 but less than or equal to 120.

Rationale:

For Questions #4 and #5

Using the data shown below in Table 3 for the sales of a new CD at a store for the last 4 weeks, answer the questions from #4 and #5.

Table 3

Judgmental forecasting should only be used if no historical data are available.

  True

  False

A moving average model works best when _____ in the time series.

  only irregular variation is present

  trend, seasonal, and cyclical patterns exist

  only a trend is present

  there is no trend, seasonal, or cyclical pattern

Seasonal patterns can occur over the weeks during a month, over days during a week, or hours during a day.

 True

  False

True

An alternate name for planning horizon is time bucket.

 True

 False

Top managers need small-range forecasts of unit sales for individual products (e.g., brands and sizes), for decisions involving financial planning, and for sizing and locating new facilities.

  True

 False

Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of a time series?

Trend

Cyclical pattern

Random variation

A long-range forecast typically covers a planning horizon of 3 to 12 months.

 True

 False

All of the following are important concepts in forecasting EXCEPT:

  determining the planning horizon length.

  determining a relationship between a single dependent variable and one or more independent variables.

  identifying cyclical patterns.

  determining the time bucket size (i.e., year, quarter, month, week, day, etc.).

A tracking signal provides a method for monitoring a forecast by quantifying _____.

  error

  accuracy

  bias

  outliers

Aggregate forecasts are generally much easier to develop whereas detailed forecasts require more time and resources.

 True

  False

Better operational decisions can be made by integrating forecasting with value chain and capacity management systems.

 True

 False

_____ forecasts are needed to plan workforce levels, allocate budgets among divisions, and schedule jobs and resources.

  Short-range

  Demand planning

  Long-range

  Intermediate-range

A(n) _____ is a one-time variation that is explainable.

  seasonal variation

  cyclical pattern

  random variation

  irregular variation

irregular variation

Long-range forecasts expressed in sales dollars are more meaningful to top managers than to managers at the operations level.

 True

 False

TRUE

Trends are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.

 True

 False

FALSE

All of the following are important criteria in choosing a forecasting method EXCEPT:

  the smoothing constant (á). 

  the time span for which the forecast is made.

  the data requirements.

  the quantitative skills needed.

Statistical forecasting is based upon the assumption that the future will be an extrapolation of the past.

TRUE

FALSE

TRUE

Which of the following is NOT a valid approach to gather data for judgmental forecasting?

  Company records

  Questionnaire

  Personal interview

  Telephone contact

COMPANY RECORDS

Which of the following statement is TRUE if the time series exhibits a negative trend in an exponential smoothing technique?

  The forecast will overshoot the actual values.

  The mean square error will be zero.

  The forecast will lag the actual values.

  The alpha value will be one.

The forecast will overshoot the actual values.

A group of international experts published a set of principles of forecasting that includes all of the following EXCEPT:

  combine forecasts from approaches that are similar.

  ask experts to justify their forecasts in writing.

  use quantitative rather than qualitative methods.

  use multiple measures of forecast accuracy.

combine forecasts from approaches that are similar.