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1. Decision Making Process 2. Concept of Bounded Rationality 3. Concept of Strategic Gap 4. Strategic Decision Making Process 5. Trull's Evaluation of Decision Success 6. Strategic Decision Matrix |
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6 Steps of Decision Making Process |
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Definition
1. setting the objective 2. generating alternatives 3. comparing and evaluating 4. making the decision 5. implementing the decision 6. follow up and control |
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6 limitation of the concept of bounded rationality |
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Definition
1. environmental limitations 2. cognitive limitations 3. imperfect information 4. time and cost constraints 5. communication failures 6. precedent and perception |
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characteristics of environment |
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opportunities threats requirements responsibilities |
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characteristics of organization |
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management technology policies resources |
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4 considerations from steps 1-4 (trull's) |
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compatibility with operating constraints timeliness optimum amount of information influence of decision maker |
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3 considerations from step 5 (trull's) |
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conflict of interest risk-reward factor understanding the decision |
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strategic decision matrix |
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satisficing outcome maximizing outcome attainable objectives/open DM process unattainable objective/closed DM process |
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Definition
simplifying strategies or rules of thumb used by individuals when making decisions. |
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the 4 general heuristics are: |
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Definition
availability heuristic representativeness heuristic confirmation heuristic affect heuristic |
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people asses the frequency, probability or likely causes of an event by the degree to which instances or occurrences of that event are readily available in memory |
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representativeness heuristic |
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when making a judgment about an individual, people tend to look for traits an individual may have that correspond with previously formed stereotypes |
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people search for and interpret evidence in a way that supports conclusion they favored at the outset |
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biases emanating from availability heuristic |
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ease of recall retrievability |
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biases emanating from representativeness heuristic |
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insensitivity to base rates insensitivity to sample size misconception of chance regression to the mean the conjunction fallacy |
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biases emanating from the confirmation heuristic |
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the confirmation trap anchoring conjunctive and disjunctive events overconfidence hindsight and the curse of knowledge |
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most of our judgements are evoked by an effective, or emotional, evaluation that occurs even before any higher level reasoning takes place. These evaluations are not conscious |
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framing of information (affect heuristic) |
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Definition
alternative wording of the same objective information that significantly alter the decision that people make despite the fact that differences between frames should have no effect on the rational decision |
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