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Region is 'ripe for rivalry' due to power vacuum left by the collapse of regional bipolarity enforced by cold war.
The region is shockingly under-institutionalised, which is a worry as institution breed mutual understanding and trust. |
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Will Europe's past be Asia's future?
During the 'concert of Europe' period of multipolarity there was a lack of stability (inherent in multipolarity)which eventually collapsed into great power war |
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Overview of Asian prospects
Great powers are economic allies but strategic rivals
Interstate rivalry is intensified due to China's rise
Nationalism and culture may become defining issues, eg anti-japanese sentiment discussed in Ashizawa 2003. |
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'Getting Asia Wrong' discusses eurocentric view inherent in discourse on East Asia.
Historical perspective- region is at its most stable when China heads the regional hierarchy.
Asian states are bandwagoning with China rather than balancing against. |
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China not an expansionist power historically- reference tribute system rather than colonialism. Expanding middle class will place demands on rulers, they will not be able to afford to look to far abroad.
Also China in security council- non-interventionist. |
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| Kang ignores India as balancing. Also states are not bandwagoning as in Walt (1987) definition of acquiescence to threatening power: China not all that threatening and states are maintaining balancing efforts, internal and external. |
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Hub and spoke model of US foreign policy no longer holds true- multilateral/ multifaceted diplomatic frameworks now endorsed by Japan.
Institutions such as ASEAN +3 bypass US |
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| Japanese ambassador to ASEAN |
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"A great game is being played in this region of the world"
Illustrates the eurocentric view as espoused by an Asian diplomat. Illustrates that Friedberg's view is not entirely culturally irrelevant. |
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| China seeks a non-nuclear Korean peninsular, though security of regime trumps this in hierarchy. DPRK's collapse would have huge implications, humanitarian, economic and political for China. |
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| ASEAN is not an effective mediator as states, including members, bypass it in favour of bilateral relations. |
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| If China were to attack Taiwan, its economic achievements would be reversed. |
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| US threats re. Taiwan must be backed up with reassurances to prevent misunderstandings leading to escalation. |
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| ASEAN in constructivist terms, shared norms and frameworks. Relatively cohesive group that has power beyond the sum of its economic and military parts. |
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| ASEAN allows smaller states a role in great power politics. However it is treated as a SOFT POWER |
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| A power balancing mechanism to break China/US bipolarity (??) |
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| Global Bipolarity was not a source of peace for East Asia- Vietnam, Cambodia, Korea |
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| Complex patchwork of security arrangements |
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