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LEADERS - Physics Chapter 3.1
Chapter 3.1 Oil: General Overview
202
Physics
Graduate
06/22/2010

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Cards

Term
What kind of a crisis are we in?
Definition
Crisis of PORTABLE energy
Term
What is the sequence of emotional reactions?
Definition
1. Surprise and Shock
2. Denial of Problem
3. Anger
4. Bargaining "Give me more time"
5. Depression
6. Acceptance or Surrender
7. Adaptation and Creative Action
Term
What is dying?
Definition
Abundant and portable energy
Term
Why is the oil crisis emotional?
Definition
Because it relates to your lifestyle.
Term
What are the 4 distinct crises?
Definition
1. Global Warming
2. Peak Production Total Energy
3. Peak Production Portable Energy
4. Peak Other Resources (bees, rains, fish, top soil, fertail land, Water, gold, uranium, phosfurous)
Term
Put the four distinct crises in order from least to greatest.
Definition
1. Global Warming
2. Peak Production Total Energy
3. Peak Production Portable Energy
4. Peak Other Resources (bees, rains, fish, top soil, fertail land, Water, gold, uranium, phosfurous)
Term
What is the imminence of global warming?
Definition
Appraching (5 to 10 years)
Term
What is the imminence of Peak Production total energy?
Definition
Approaching (10-15 years)
Term
What is the Imminence of Peak Production Portable Energy?
Definition
NOW (-3 to 5 years)
Term
What is the imminence of Peak Other Materials (bees, grains, fish, top soil, fertile land, water, goal, uranium)
Definition
NOW (O to 5 years)
Term
Are fish post peak?
Definition
Yes
Term
Why is the imminence of Peak Production Portable Energy -3?
Definition
Some stuff is already post peak
Term
What is the impact of global warming?
Definition
GRADUAL over 10-100+ years
Term
What is the impact of Peak Production Total Energy?
Definition
CATASTROPIC
Term
What is the impact of Peak Production Portable Energy?
Definition
CATASTROPIC
Term
What is the impact of Peak other materials?
Definition
CATASTROPHIC Can be exacerbated by 1-3 (If you dont' solve this you probably won't solve the others)
Term
Is soil important?
Definition
Yes, most of us take it for granted but it is an ecosystem in itself
Term
What is the scale of consumption?
Definition
1 Q = 10e18 J
Term
What is the world energy consumption today in quads?
Definition
446 quads
Term
What is the world energy consumption today in BTU?
Definition
4.46 x 10e17 BTU
Term
What is the world energy consumption today in kW-hour?
Definition
12.3 x 10e25 kW-hour
Term
What is the world energy consumption today in Watt-year?
Definition
14 x 10e12
Term
What is the world energy consumption today in J?
Definition
4.46 x 10e20 J
Term
What is the total US energy consumption in quads?
Definition
110 Quads
Term
What is the total US energy consumption in J?
Definition
1 x 10e20 J
Term
What is the US's share of the world population?
Definition
4.6%
Term
What is the US's share of energy production?
Definition
16%
Term
What is the US's share of energy consumption?
Definition
22.5%
Term
When will oil peak?
Definition
-4 to 3 years
Term
When will gas peak?
Definition
10 to 15 years
Term
When will coal peak?
Definition
15 to 20 years
Term
What does peak mean?
Definition
Maximum production of an energy source after which production declines indefintely forever.
Term
Describe the Global Energy Mis of Oil, Coal, Gas, Hydro, Nuclear, and Other
Definition
Oil 36%
Coal 29%
Gas 24%
Hydro 6%
Nuclear 6%
Other 1%
Term
When will we globally peak if we don't increase rate of wind, solar, etc?
Definition
2015-2025
Term
When oil is gone...
Definition
it's gone forever.
Term
What is a car's fuel tank like?
Definition
(Right angle graph) You can drive at full speed until the moment you run out of fuel
Term
Why are you in trouble when you reach half of your oil resource?
Definition
Because you need to slow down
Term
Where and when was the first oil well?
Definition
Pennsylvania 1859
Term
How many barrels of oil were there before any drilling?
Definition
2 trillion barrels
Term
By 2008 how many barrels have we used up?
Definition
Used up about 1 trillion; SOOOOOOO we're near the half-way point
Term
The Civil War was like a fight for...
Definition
free energy.
Term
What did we find as the civil war was starting?
Definition
Oil. Coincidence?!
Term
What is oil like pre-peak?
Definition
You have a lot of wells, you keep discovering more.
Term
What do you need to do once you are post peak?
Definition
Must reduce consumption or find another source.
Term
How close are we to an oil peak?
Definition
We are at peak or within 10-15 years away from oil peak.
Term
What did the geogolgist Hubbert predict?
Definition
That the oil extraction for the US lower 48 states would peak in 1970.
Term
When did US oil production peak?
Definition
1970
Term
How did people initially react to Hubbert's prediction?
Definition
Wanted to surpress Hubbert's predictions because US doesn't want to believe a "party pooper."
Term
What is in between producers and consumers in the oil industry?
Definition
Oil contracting, bidding, etc.
Term
Oil DISCOVERIES in the US peaked in 1930. What happened 40 years later?
Definition
US oil production peaked.
Term
Were certain US states/regions already post-peak oil in 1956?
Definition
Yes
Term
When was the US discovery peak?
Definition
1930
Term
What information did Hubbert use to make his prediction about peak oil?
Definition
In the lower 48 states the peaks in DISCOVERY happened in the 1930s so Hubbert realized we were producing a lot but not replacing new discoveries
Term
When was the WORLD oil DISCOVERY peak?
Definition
1960s
Term
What can you compare a discovery peak to?
Definition
An easter egg hunt. Quickly find a lot but then the rate you find them decreases.
Term
When did US oil production peak?
Definition
1970
Term
How much does the US produce of it's peak?
Definition
<60% of its peak
Term
What do we know from Global Discovery peaks?
Definition
That we will peak oil in 5-10 years
Term
What is OPEC?
Definition
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Community of oil exporters - "How can we maximize profit?")
Term
[image]
Definition

1. Good quality is already post peak

2. Looking at rate of decline at plants and new plants 

3. Looked at individual fields and made projections

4. Peak oil is imminent will happen in < 5 years

5. Decline after peak will be > 5% years

6. Good quality oil is already post peak

7. Rate of flow - easier to verify from fields

 

Term
Who collects reserve data in the Middle East?
Definition
Their governments
Term
Who does Saudi Arabia report their reserves to?
Definition
IEA; but nobody knows the real data besides the government
Term
Why are net oil exports decreasing?
Definition
Some producers are using more of their own oil so they have less to export to us
Term
On the Green, yellow, and red chart, why was there a BIG JUMP in oil reserves around 1988?
Definition
Made Rule: the people with more reserves are able to produce more, therefore the reported reserves JUMPED (more production, more $)
Term
What is strange about the OPEC Reserves chart?
Definition
Reserves are not declining. Reserves should be depleting. SUSPISCIOUS
Term
What does USGS report with their forecasts?
Definition
Making predictions taht we will make more discoveries that is even more than we are coming so we will add to our reserves. VERY OPTIMISTIC.
Term
What does EROEI refer to?
Definition
The ratio of the amount of energy in the fuel AND the amount of energy spend on getting the fuel: exploration, drilling, pumping, transportation and refining
Term
What was oil's EROEI before 1950?
Definition
100 to 1
Term
What was oil's EROEI in 1979?
Definition
30 to 1
Term
What was oil's EROEI in 2005?
Definition
10 to 1
Term
What is the EROEI of the Tar Sands?
Definition
4 to 1
Term
Why are we using oil from the tar sands if it has a low EROEI?
Definition
We've run out of the good EROEI places so we have to use this stuff
Term
What's up with the Tar Sands?
Definition
In Canada; oil mixed with sand and you need to remove the sand which required natural gas; may build nuclear power plants to refine oil in the tar sands
Term
What does NSE stand for?
Definition
Net Surplus Energy
Term
What does TM stand for?
Definition
Total mass of energy providing material. e.g. oil, coal, gas, wind turbine, PV modules
Term
What does EPM stand for?
Definition
Energy produced per unit mass
Term
E out =
Definition
TM x EPM
Term
NSE =
Definition
E out - E in = E in [Eout/Ein - 1]
Term
Peak oil is not just supply but also
Definition
EROEI
Term
NSE you...
Definition
subtract what you put in to find that barrel
Term
In the world, how many barrels do we burn for every one barrel discovered?
Definition
4
Term
If you had 15 Gigabarrels/year in the 1960s and once again we have 15 Gigabarrels/year in 2015, why is it worse in 2015?
Definition
You have more people, more GDP; you have more people so you need more energy
Term
How many barrels of oil does the world use per year?
Definition
30 Billion barrels
Term
What is a problem with the Tar Sands?
Definition
Rate of Flow problems
Term
Drill as much as you want, it doesn't matter because...
Definition
it won't solve the problem.
Term
What are myths about saviors?
Definition
1. Canadian sands will save us
2. More drilling and exploration will save us
3. Coal to liquids
4. Shale, Methane Hydrates
5. Biofuels
6. Renewables
IT WON'T SAVE US!
Term
When will we reach our oil peak?
Definition
-4 to 3 years
Term
How can we reach out peak in -4 years?
Definition
Some of the best quality oil has already peaked
Term
When will net total surplus energy for all uses peak?
Definition
10-20 years
Term
Where are oil molecules?
Definition
Everywhere! Get naked and hover if you don't want to have anything to do with oil.
Term
What are some reasons we believe there is a near peak in oil?
Definition
- Rate of flow: Field by field analysis shows we are close to peak
- Discoveries peak
- Burning more than we discover
- EROEI is down
Term
What are some diffferent fuels and products oil can be refined into?
Definition
Gas, Naphtha, Gasoline, Kerosene, Diesel, Lubricants
Term
What does this mean "No easy scalable substitute for oil."
Definition
You can substitute in small quantities but not in the quantities that we need
Term
Fill up a cube with all the oil we use in a year. How big will it be?
Definition
1 mile cubed
Term
If we ran each of these power plants for 50 years, how many would we need of each to each oil consumed per year?
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Wind
Solar
Definition
Hydro - 4
Nuclear - 52
Coal - 104
Wind 32,850
Solar 91,250,800
Term
How many nuclear plants are in the US?
Definition
100
Term
Does oil have a high energy per unit mass?
Definition
Yes
Term
1 gallon of oil is how many kWhr?
Definition
37.63 kWhr
Term
1 gallon of oil =
Definition
32408.3 Food-can
Term
1 gallon of oil in men
Definition
11 young men
Term
What is the world yearly consumption of oil?
Definition
31 GBa/yr = 4.216 Gtoe = 5.593TW-yr/yr
Term
What is the US yearly consumption of oil?
Definition
7.665 Gba/yr = 1.04244 Gtoe/yr = 1.382 TW-yr/yr = 3 times the US yearly electricity consumtion
Term
1 toe = how many J?
Definition
4.18 x 10e10 J
Term
1 Ba = 42 gallons = ? toe
Definition
0.136 toe
Term
1 Ba = 0.136 x 4.1836 x 10 e 10 J = 5.6896 GJ = MW-hr?
Definition
1.5805 MWhr
Term
What is wealth for a mushroom?
Definition
decaying matter
Term
What is wealth for lion?
Definition
Lots of deer, water
Term
What is wealth for humans?
Definition
Wealth for humans is a certain type of order in the nearby environment. Of course this means creating more disorder elsewhere.
Term
What is wealth for humans?
Definition
Wealth for humans is a certain type of order in the nearby environment. Of course this means creating more disorder elsewhere.
Term
Does wealth depend on species?
Definition
Yes
Term
What does material wealth mean?
Definition
A type of order
Term
What is the US population?
Definition
300 million
Term
What are 3 things that are related to material wealth?
Definition
1. CLAIM - an individual's claim on human, plant, or animal output
2. PURPOSE or INTENT for final consumption
3. ORDER - for socieities it is a type of desired order within humans and the environment
Term
Is $ relevent to wealth in this discussion?
Definition
No
Term
Do all humans agree on wealth?
Definition
No, one man's richness is another man's poverty: ex. baseball in US does not appeal in Japan - they want sumo wrestling
Term
Are intent and order connected?
Definition
Yes
Term
What's something that causes problems with wealth?
Definition
When people claim the same thing it causes problems.
Term
In claim, is distribution of claim always evenly distributed?
Definition
No
Term
How many barrels does US use every day?
Definition
18 million barrels/day
Term
How many barrels of oil does China use per day?
Definition
8 million barrels/day
Term
How many barrels does the WORLD use per YEAR?
Definition
30 Billion barrerls per year
Term
Claims are different that what?
Definition
Energy
Term
What are some things that people agree on that are signs of order?
Definition
1. Long life
2. Higher education
3. Disease free life
4. Low crime
Term
What do we want to minimize in this formula dF = dU - TdS?
Definition
free energy
Term
What do we want to minimize in this formula dF = dU - TdS?
Definition
free energy
Term
What is sustainable GDP growth with decreasing energy?
Definition
an oxymoron or nonsense
Term
Life and material richness is impossible without what?
Definition
energy
Term
What is the formula that shows that natural systems want to minimize dF. (Free energy)
Definition
dF = dU - TdS
free energy = energy stored - entropy
Term
If we want to oppose this trend we need constant input of energy. What is the formula?
Definition
dQ = dU + dW
dQ = useful work + desired work
Term
You can do efficiency but you can't sustain your GDP on what?
Definition
efficiency (reducing wasted energy)
Term
Since entropy always goes up, what happens with free energy?
Definition
free energy goes down
Term
(Graph) As Russia grows it's GDP what happens?
Definition
More energy is consumed
Term
How is oil fungible?
Definition
you can trade it for whatever you want
Term
You can't build a high GDP country just by doing what?
Definition
reducing wasteful work
Term
What can NOT be said about GDP vs. Consumption at a Fixed time?
Definition
Can't say I have very little energy and high GDP.
Term
In the GDP vs. Energy Consumption at a Fixed Time graph Saudi Arabia in partly lowish right. Explain.
Definition
Using a lot of oil but not generating a lot of wealth (doing wasteful work; wasting energy.)
Term
In the GDP vs. Energy Consumption at a Fixed Time graph what is going on with the US?
Definition
Uses a lot of oil per person, high income
Term
What is TM?
Definition
Total mass of energy providing material e.g., oil, coil, gas, wind turbine, PV modules
Term
What is EPM?
Definition
Energy produced per unit mass; E out = TM x EPM
Term
NSE = ?
Definition
NSE = E out - E in = E in [Eout/Ein - 1]
Term
Based on NSE, what are we running out of?
Definition
both TM and EROEI
Term
Which occupations are threatened?
Definition
All occupations in society that do not generate NSE are threatened.
Term
What goes down in a recession?
Definition
GDP and energy use both go down
Term
Why does tourism exist?
Definition
because cheap oil is available
Term
Why are airlines shutting down?
Definition
Oil used to cost $15-20 per barrel ten years ago now it's $75 per barrel so air lines are shutting down
Term
We no longer have a "Growth Economics" what kind of an economy do we have?
Definition
Steady of Shrinking Economy
Term
What will be affected because we have less energy?
Definition
1. Tourism
2. Entertainment
3. Restaurants
4. Transportation
5. Banking & Finance
6. Law & Health Service
Term
What is something that will increase do to having less oil?
Definition
Farming, solar, wind, geothermal, lumbering, energy equipment
Term
How will family structure change due to having less energy?
Definition
1. Grandparents-Parent-Child relationship - used to live together; uses less energy
2. Husband-Wife relationship (both parents working and hire someone to watch kids so bad use of energy)
3. Neighbor-neighbor relationship (less house mobility)
Term
What is another result of decreased EROEI?
Definition
Less house/person; parents who've moved into their adult children's homes increased 67%, from about 2.1 million in 2000 to 3.6 million in 2007
Term
Why is energy embodied in everything you see?
Definition
Because someone had to put in energy to create it.
Term
What is the effect of lower EROEI on high education?
Definition
society will not have energy surpluses to send 1/4 of the young population to learn non-energy producing activities
Term
What was abundant food surpluses (>60 days of grain supply/capita) in last thirty years possible due to?
Definition
1. Better seed quality (not energy dependent)
2. Irrigation (energy dependent)
3. Ferilizers (derivative of natural gas and other materials)
4. Pesticides (derivative of rude oil)
5. Massive farm equipment (crude oil dependent)
6. Transportation from farm to consumer (crude oil dependent)
Term
On average, the food industry uses how many calories of fossil fuel energy to produce 1 calorie of food?
Definition
10
Term
For pork, how many calories of fossil fuel energy are used to produce 1 calorie of food?
Definition
68
Term
For beef, how many calories of fossil fuel energy are used to produce 1 calorie of food?
Definition
35
Term
What will happen with resource wars?
Definition
They will increase
Term
What is the key to the energy crisis?
Definition
Conservation
Term
Is there any easy solution?
Definition
No easy solution because we can't quickly scale it up OR it doesn't have enough energy density
Term
What is the biggest part of the energy solution?
Definition
Conservation
Term
What is demand reduction?
Definition
We will unwind good portion of globalization; go back to simpler life styles, technologies that worked before
Term
What with the #1 Solution to the oil crisis?
Definition
1. A DEPLETION PROTOCOL between all oil importing countries to cut imports to match delpletion rate (Reduce wasteful work like wars)
Term
What are the four types of wealth?
Definition
1. Human or individual capital (self-actualization, Maslow)
2. Social or interpersonal capital
3. Natural or ecological capital
4. Material capital
Term
What is human or individual capital?
Definition
Can measure wealth by opportunity to self-actualize; requires energy but not as much as material wealth
Term
What is social or interpersonal capital?
Definition
Conflict between race? age cohorts? or do they work together
Term
What is natural or ecological capital?
Definition
National parks, clear air and water, etc.
Term
What do we need to focus our values on?
Definition
Human, Social, and Natural capital
Term
What kind of capital do we need to move away from?
Definition
Material capital
Term
What is HDI?
Definition
Human Development Index
Term
How will less EROEI effect education?
Definition
Higher student to teacher ratios
Term
Do we take out lives for granted?
Definition
Yes
Term
When did we start having surplus energy?
Definition
Farming
Term
[image]
Definition

1. HDI = Human Development Index

2. Some countries have found ways to improve HDI without increasing energy consumption - we need to study these countries

3. Iceland is using a lot of energy but not a lot higher quality of life.

4. Variety of HDI in the left hand side

Term
What are 5 solutions to oil (Mitigation)
Definition
1. Conservation and efficiency, personal and societal
2. Rapid deployment of existing technology, public transport, electric-transport, wind, solar-heat and phtovoltaic, geothermal (use what we already know because we don't have time)
3. Raising awareness by scientists and engineers of locals, media and policy makers (this class)
4. Applied engineering reasearch
5. Fundamental research done today will have scaled impact after 20 years
Term
Why do we need to decrease our energy consumption PROACTIVELY?
Definition
So we don't have to go low on the HDI scale.
Term
What are 8 solutions that are priorities in the US?
Definition
1. Massive public education for demand reduction (targets of 50 to 80% per capita in 10 years)
2. Reactivate electric trains, trams, trolleys buses; Upgrade the electric grid
3. WWII type effort for car and truck batteries, solar, wind, geothermal, and wave energy
4. WWII type effort for energy conservation in homes and buildings, lighting, CAFE standards
5. Greater use of arable land for growing crops such as oilseeds, willow for wood pellets, forest generation
7. Stop corn ethanol immediately
8. Tackle population growth
Term
What is CAFE?
Definition
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (miles per gallon)
Term
Why can I do immediately? (10 things)
Definition
1. Pray, Meditate to relax and reduce panic
2. Teach children about these issues to continue dialouge into future generations
3. Get yourself educated
4. Reduce your liquid fuels consumption by 50-80%
5. Educate family, friends, coworkers, policy makers
6. Form community support networks
7. Contact local, state, and federal representatives
8. Trying to reduce consumption in your line of work.
9. Changing careers from energy consuming to energy producing industries
10. Participating and influencing the media
Term
Why won't drilling in ANWAR help us?
Definition
If you drill in ANWAR (Artic) 5-10 years we will slow down the post peak decline a little but your decline is still there
Term
Lithium has what?
Definition
power density
Term
Why won't the Canadian oil sands save us?
Definition
1. Hard to see this with current technology
2. Natural gas is in limited supply (alternatives require more capital)
3. Most optimistic forecasts equal 5% of current world oil by 2030 (even this exceeds available natural gas)
Term
What are 4 problems with ethanol?
Definition
1. Raises food prices.
2. Not scalable (can't replace 85 million barrels of oil/day with this)
3. CO2 issues
4. depletes water supply
Term
What are the problems with cellulosic ethanol?
Definition
1. Still does not scale to more than 20% of need.
2. Competes with biomass for electric, home heat
3. Low EROEI
Term
What are the problems with algae?
Definition
1. Not perfected yet.
2. Scalability is highly doubtful (although per acre you can produce a lot more algae than other crops)
Term
What are 3 reasons biofuels wont save us?
Definition
1. Corn-based ethanol has many problems
2. Cellulosic ethanol has some problems
3. Biofuel from algae might work but is not perfected yet
Term
What does CTL stand for?
Definition
Coal to liquids
Term
Why won't coal to liquids save us?
Definition
1. There is not enough coal (US coal at or near peak)
2. without CTL world coal peaks in 20 years, with CTL maybe in 5 years
3. It has a low EROEI < 5 (very expensive)
4. CTL is very polluting
Term
What will happen if we reduce energy consumption?
Definition
GDP will reduce but we don't have a sustainable GDP, need to be proactive so we can handle it smoothly
Term
Could OPEC produce more if used current techniques?
Definition
No
1. International oil companies use same service companies US companies do
2. Most are using up-to-date techniques
3. Expenditures often are high
4. Problem is very old fields
5. Overstated reserves raise expectations
Term
Can a small downturn easily be made up with energy efficiency?
Definition
No
1. The quickest impacts are financial
2. Use of biofuels raises food prices
3. Don't need peak for recession (only need supply/demand shortfall)
Term
Which is better, heavy or sweet oil?
Definition
Sweet is light and low sulfur; easier to refine because it's already lighter
Term
1 Quad BTU = J?
Definition
10 e 18
Term
Annual world total energy consumption in BTU?
Definition
World 446 Quads
US 100 Quads
China 80 Quads
Russia 40 Quads
Term
US info compared to world:
Definition
Population 4.6%
Energery Production: 15.9%
Energy Consumption 22.5%
Term
US Oil consumption annual:
Definition
7.665 Gigabarels
1.042 Gigatons
1.382 TW/yr
3x US electity consumption
Term
Unit Equiv
Definition
1 toe = 4.2 x 10 e 100 J
1 Ba = 42 gallons = 0.136 toe
1 Ba = 180 W/yr
Term
WEO outlook projections vs. IEA oil projections
Definition
~ descrepancy 80 million barrels/days by 2030
Term
Use gas usage
Definition
20-23 Tcf/yr
Term
Total world production of unconventional oil liquids
Definition
12 mb/d
Term
World elect
Definition
Term
World electricty production by source
Definition
Renewables 2%
Coal 40%
Gas 20%
Nuclear 15%
Hydro 16%
Oil 7%
Term
1 Barrell of oil:
Definition
46% of it is gasoline
23% is fuel oil
8% jet fuel
propane 2%
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