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Average citizen doesn't want war, war is likely when citizens say so, democracy leads to peace |
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states value power, zero sum game, survival is best ensured when a state has the ability to defend itself, anarchy, violent conflict will never end |
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- States are rational and will cooperate, international institutions |
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structure of international system - Distro of power, int'l institutions, economic interdependence, norms |
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state - domestic politics, regime type, culture, interests groups |
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leaders - personalities, beliefs, perceptions |
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fighting is costly, but you could benefit from it - religion, politics, ideology etc. - states use available information - biases can get in the way |
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incentive to misrepresent |
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will give enemy imperfect information, bully-knife metaphor |
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people are concerned about whether a state will commit to not attack them if even if they later become more powerful - Will Athens attack later when they are stronger? |
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war occurs when states fear attack - cause is insecurity - try to prevent war through assurance |
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when costs of attacking go down - cause is greed - prevent war through military strength - spiral model is weak to deterrence model |
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flexible balance, commitment to monarchy as legitimate form of government |
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not a very good politician, helped oversee the demise of the concert of europe |
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Complex alliances, Realpolitik, big focus on German nationalism |
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headed by Metternich, first in long series of meetings that aimed to establish a peaceful balance of power |
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being able to id yourself as whomever you want, self-determination |
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war between France, Britain, Ottoman Empire versus the Russians over the Balkans |
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Britain and France agree to open their border to free trade through lower tariffs. |
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Most favored nation status |
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Most favored nation status |
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basically giving another party preferential treatment in the form of lower tariffs. Also, anything Britain or France signed with a third party they had to give each other too. |
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Hegemonic Stability Theory |
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The theory that the presence of one single nation as a hegemon will create a stable international envrionment. |
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piece of land with mostly ethnic Germans, German speakers that France also wanted |
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Germany, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria |
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Russia, Austria, Prussia - used by Metternich to ward off revolution |
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Britain is mostly isolated, only intervenes to keep balance of power |
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Attempt by Bismarck at avoiding any sort of two front war by allying with Russia, sticking it to France by making them politically isolated |
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helped bring down Concert of Europe |
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Knock out France fast before the Russians can mobilize, then attack Russia |
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warned that total disarmament was impossible |
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if a nation is strong, then it threatens others, if a nation is weak, then if the status quo powers(the powers that keep the normal way of things) are too weak, attack could happen |
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Kaiser during WWI, total moron, messed up many of Germany's alliances that Bismarck had sealed, pissed people off, let Reinsurance Treaty run out, creating need for Schlieffen plan |
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Advantage lies in the attack party |
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Archduke of Austria, assassinated, started WWI |
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Austria-Hungary demands Serbia totally submit to them, doesn't so well, AH declares war on Serbia, WWI begins |
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peace treaty after WWI, german war guilt, reparations, |
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security of one is a concern for all |
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wilson's idea to bring the nations togehter, really ineffectual, precursor to UN, no actual power |
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wilson's outlines his wished for the postwar world |
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choosing what/who you want to be |
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reduced German's repartions, reconciled Germany and France, got Germany into the LoN, |
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argued against return to gold standard |
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• smoot-hawley tariff act |
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raised tariffs in US really high |
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• reciprocal trade agreements act |
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liberalized american trade |
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really bad economic conditions, trade went way down • |
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big defense line that France built, Germany went through Belgium |
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bringing Germans together, Austria |
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- need more of dat living room for dem germans |
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Balkan place of mostly Ethnic Germans that Hitler wanted |
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- Conference between the big three, sellout of Europe |
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punishment for Germany, rebuilding Europe |
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Japanese attackt he officially brought the US into WWII |
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• Molotov-Ribbentrop Agreement |
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non-agression pact bewteen Germany and Russia, didn't work out, since Hitler attacked Russia |
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Soviet equivalent of Long Telegram |
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Just prevent Soviet influence from spreading |
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plan to rebuild Western Europe |
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Basically a metaphorical curtain, coined by Churchhill of ideology in the middle of Europe |
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UN paper that outlined the United States stance towards Soviets |
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big group of Communists that want to bring down capitalism |
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support countries, specifically Greece and Turkey so that they do not fall under Soviet control |
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States put money and gold in, currency is fixed to gold, IMF can lend money and adjust rate if necessary |
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General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade - no tariffs |
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Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - 1961 - stimulate world trade |
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Issues of peace and security - members are bound to enforce - 5 permanent members with veto power, 10 elected by GA - 9 yes votes to act |
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all member states - one state one vote - 2/3 majority for peace, security, budget, new members |
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• Uniting for Peace Resolution |
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Definition
if SC 5 permanent members cannot work together to insure international security, it falls to GA |
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• United Nations Emergency Force |
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Definition
deployed to Suez Canal to end the Crisis there |
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Definition
Israel, France, Britain paratroop into seize the Canal, UNEF keeps the peace |
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• import-substituting industrialization |
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Definition
big credits/subsidies, barriers to trade, replacing previously imported good with locally manufactured goods |
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• export-oriented industrialization |
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big credits/subsides to engender exports |
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Puppet leader instilled by US government to preside over SV |
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key figure in forming the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, vietcong, NV |
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• Strategic Hamlet Program |
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Definition
force SV people to live in these hamlet type fortresses to protect them, pissed many off |
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American ships claim their were fired upon by NV, helped to spark the US military involvement in Vietnam |
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US bombing campaign in Vietnam |
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when NV and Vietcong attacked during the Tet day, lost bad, showed resolve, discouraged US |
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Secretary of State, always saying that the US should get involved in Vietnam |
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When one state falls to communism, the rest will go too |
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big advances in nuke tech, nuclear war becomes unwinnable |
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• mutually assured destruction |
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Definition
in a nuclear war, everyone is going to die on both sides |
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• second-strike capability |
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states can retaliate effectively from a nuclear attack |
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• stability-instability paradox |
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when two countries have nukes, makes it easier to engage in smaller conflicts without escalating to nuclear war, no major conflicts |
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military threat to deter war, threaten to use nukes or conventional means as a way to deter conflict |
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make someone do something |
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1939 - 1951- pretty peaceful in the world |
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Closest the superpowers come to nuclear war - many soviet missiles in cuba - |
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big nationalist president of Egypt before Anwar Sadat, who forced the October War to start negotiations |
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Israeli Premier during this time |
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surprise attack by Egypt and Syria on Israel during Yom Kippur |
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US backed government overthrown, most Shia iran threatens mostly Sunni neighbors |
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group of 7 oil companies that banded together to put pressure on oil producers and control prices |
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when one firm controls the whole market |
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when a small amount of firms control the market, cartels are typically formed |
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oligopoly firms get together to fix prices and form strategy that maximizes the profit of each individual player |
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Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - oil cartel that used the "oil weapon" to exert pressure on other, typically western, countries |
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able to influence commodity supply with little cost, Saudi Arabia in OPEC, basically |
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real wages go down and inflation goes up, unemployment goes up as inflation gets high |
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increasingly free flow of capital, goods, ideas, people |
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countries can only have 2 of the 3 - capital mobility, stable exchange rate, monetary independece - the first 2 are the most important, because when you have those, you are pretty much beholden to the monetary policy of other countries |
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• International Monetary Fund |
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Definition
supposed to help prevent future depressions, pressure countries that don't contribute to worldwide aggregate demand, or help countries stimulate their industry with liquid loans - now champions market supremacy, will only provide funds if countries do things that contract the economy, like cutting deficits, raising taxes, or raising interest rates |
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supposed to provide liquid loans for developing countries, both IMF and world bank originated in WWII |
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General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade - superseded by WTO, supposed to reduce tariffs among agreeing states, free flow of goods and capital |
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• World Trade Organization |
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Definition
WTO - does not set rules, is a forum for trade negotiations, and it also makes sure the that agreements are followed through on |
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Definition
IMF, World Bank, and US Treasury decide what is right for developing countries, lead to huge sequencing issues, generally ineffective and ended up in developing countries getting fucked over |
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the order in which reforms occur - if markets become too competitive before strong firms are created, then jobs will be lost before they are created |
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- conditions are affixed to loan and grants and such and, typically ascribed to the IMF and World Bank when they assist developing countries in their struggles - cut public projects, services, benefits |
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• anti-globalization movement |
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Definition
globalization accentuates the class divide between the rich and the poor and just makes poor countries even poorer than they were before |
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high tariffs and taxes on imported goods from other countries combine with heavy subsidies on domestically produced goods to make it so agricultural products from poor nations never make to market |
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most of the aid is wasted by corrupt politicians or incompetent government officials, people need homegrown economic and political change, not support from the outside |
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we need to not just give money to people, but not focus on past failures. Instead, focus on things that have actually worked, help prop up certain programs and help people in other, poor nations get their product to market |
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its everyone's problem so nobody does anything |
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50% reduction in CFCs, international cooperation |
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benefits without contributing |
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leader of the Soviet Union, allowed the general disband of it, perestroika/glasnost |
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generally peaceful, soviet soldiers were under orders to not interfere |
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• soviet economic decline |
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Definition
soviet products had a strong tendency to be shoddy, somewhat economically isolated |
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two major powers, pretty stable, powers are too focused on the power of the other, |
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many major actors, very unstable because of how many competing interests there are |
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only one major actor, extremely stable, only one major actor has interests |
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extremely controversial issue, some people wanted the new Russia and the new Germany included in NATO, but some others just did not trust them and thought that the United States was selling out its values from the Cold War |
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• non-state entity or actor |
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Definition
an entity or actor that has no official ties or dealings with a state, terrorist |
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a criminal that uses terrorism tactics to try to instill terror nad bring about political change |
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Weapon of Mass Destruction - kind of contentious on what really characterizes a WMD |
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- prevent people from getting WMDs, protect United States and its allies from harm from failed states |
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stats that are unable to provide for the basic needs of its people, not necessarily states without any government, think Congo |
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• strategic logic of terrorist |
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Definition
instill fear, show strong resolve, wear down the enemy, kind of like a war of attrition • |
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right to violent actions within your borders, determine borders |
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choosing who you want to rule over you |
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humanitarian crises are often only payed attention to by those who are already familiar with it, people who do not know alot about the area where the crisis is occurring witll not be as willing to act. such is the case with Rwanda. |
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• moral hazards of intervention |
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Definition
collateral damage, empowering parties that also are not all that good, can sometimes lead to worse conditions for the people you are trying to save |
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good government is more important that democracy, cannot expect every country to conform solely to your way of doing things |
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• Universal Declaration of Human Rights |
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Definition
set out the rights people should be guaranteed as human being. very western-centric. not everybody agrees with it because people have different ideas of what constitute human rights. |
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the universalization of western ideals, democracy can no longer be improved upon, communism will disappear |
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the fundemental source of conflict in this world will be cultural. nation states will persist, but the main conflict will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations(cultures) |
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there is strong dispute over whether China can rise peacefully or not. as china builds up its military capability, at one point does it become offensive instead of defensive? |
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Definition
should not think of any one nations as global hegemony, but, instead as a regional hegemony, where one state can militarily dominate its own region and maybe other places that are easily accessible over land. Also, once states establish a regional hegemony, they will go out of their way to prevent one from arising in different regions |
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Definition
using the military or economic coercion to influence other states. Hegemonic powers are particularly capable of using this power to force nearby weaker states to bend to their will |
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• signaling of intentions |
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Definition
China cannot credibly signal its intentions because its intentions are opaque and they change often |
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it is impossible at this point for any European country to achieve regional hegemony, so, in order to be taken seriously(become a superpower), Europe must unite(EU). Some say that since the advent of the EU, the world is bipolar today because there is the United States and then the European Union. |
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• convergence of state preferences |
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Definition
states have their policy choices converge in order to form power blocs(think European Union) and to consolidate their own power and to maximize the goals by working together(cartel, oligopoly) • |
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