Term
| Representativeness- Tversky and Kahneman (1972) |
|
Definition
-How an event is similar to the rest of the population of events
-Eg. In a sequence of 6 digits, 111222 seems less likely than 212211 to come up in a random sequence as the second option is more representative of the 20 possible sequences.
-Can cause Base Rate Neglect also.
|
|
|
Term
| Base Rate Neglect – Tversky and Kahneman (1973) |
|
Definition
-When given a certain set of data we are more likely to neglect a change in base rate even when the probabilities change which should encourage us to change our answers to become more logical.
-Eg. A character description that typically fits a lawyer is given, there are 2 different scenarios given, one where there were 70 lawyers and 30 engineers and vice versa. People estimated there was more chance of James being a lawyer in both conditions even though in the second condition logic would dictate there are more engineers therefore it is more likely that he is an engineer.
|
|
|
Term
| Availability – Tversky and Kahneman (1974) |
|
Definition
- Where someone’s exposure to a set of assumptions or information will skew their perception of reality.
- E.g, most people thought murder was more common than suicide as the media exposes people to the events of murder far more frequently than that of suicide which therefore distorts the public opinion on the actuality of the event of murder. |
|
|
Term
| Anchoring - Tversky and Kahneman (1974) |
|
Definition
- Relying too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the "anchor") when making decisions. Once an anchor is set, other judgments are made by adjusting away from that anchor, and there is a bias toward interpreting other information around the anchor.
- E.g, participants observed a roulette wheel that was predetermined to stop on either 10 or 65. Participants were then asked to guess the percentage of the United Nations that were African nations. Participants whose wheel stopped on 10 guessed lower values (25% on average) than participants whose wheel stopped at 65 (45% on average). |
|
|
Term
| Means Ends Analysis – Simon and Newell (1972) |
|
Definition
| - To set up smaller sub-goals which complement the end aim or goal and then constantly re-evaluate the performance of those sub-goals. By completing them, the final goal decreases in size or severity due to the move towards it. |
|
|
Term
| Hill Climbing – Simon and Newell (1972) |
|
Definition
| - Changing the present state of the problem into one apparently closer to the goal. It is used when the problem is not well defined. |
|
|
