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Definition
| The art and science of predicting future events. |
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| Planning indicators that are valuable in helping organizations prepare medium- to long-range forecasts |
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| Long-term forecasts concerned with the rates of technological progress |
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| Projections of a company's sales for each time period in the planning horizon |
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Definition
| Forecasts that employ one or more mathematical models that rely on historical data and/or casual variables to forecast demand. |
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| Forecasts that incorporate such factors the decision maker's intuition, emotions, personal experiences, and value system. |
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| Jury of executive opinion |
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Definition
| A forecasting technique that takes the opinion of a small group of high-level managers and results in a group estimate of demand |
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Definition
| A forecasting technique using a group process that allows experts to make forecasts. |
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| A forecasting technique based on salespersons' estimates of expected sales. |
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| A forecasting method that solicits input from customers or potential customers regarding future purchasing plans. |
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| A forecasting technique that uses a series of past data points to make a forecast. |
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Definition
| A forecasting technique that assumes demand in the next period is equal to demand in the most recent period. |
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Definition
| A forecasting average of the n most recent periods of data to forecast the next period. |
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Definition
| A weighted-moving-average forecasting technique in which data points are weighted by an exponential function |
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Definition
| The weighting factor used in an exponential smoothing forecast, a number between 0 and 1 |
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Term
| Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) |
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Definition
| A measure of the overall forecast error for a model. |
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Definition
| The average of the squared differences between the forecasted and observed values. |
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| Mean absolute percent error (MAPE) |
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Definition
| The average of the absolute differences between teh forecast and actual alues, expressed as a percent o factual values. |
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Definition
| A time-series forecasting method that fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then prejects the line into the future for forecasts. |
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Definition
| Regualr upward or downward movements in a timer series that tie to recurring events. |
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Definition
| Patterns in the data that occur every several years. |
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| Linear-regression analysis |
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Definition
| A straight-line mathematical model to describe the functional relationships between independent and dependent variables |
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| Standard error of the estimate |
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Definition
| A measure of variablility around the regression line - its standard deviation |
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| Coefficient of Correlation |
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Definition
| A measure of the strength of the relationship between 2 variables. |
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Term
| Coefficient of determination |
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Definition
| A measure of the amount of variation in the dependent variable about its mean that is explained by the regression equation. |
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Definition
| An associative forecasting method with more than one independent variable |
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| A measurement of how well forecast is predicting actual values |
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| A forecast that is consistently higher or consistently lower than actual values of a time series |
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Definition
| An approach to exponential smoothing forecasting in which the smoothing constatn is automatically changed to keep erros to a minimum |
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Definition
| Forecasting that tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application |
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