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Qualitative Vs. Quantitative Forecasting |
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Qualitative: 1. Panel consensus 2. Delphi method 3. Historical analogy 4. Market research
Quantitative ->Time Series 1. Moving average 2. Weighted moving average 3. Exponential smoothing
->Causal Relationship 1. Regression |
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Medium and long-term forecasts that are used to make decisions related to design and plans for meeting demand. |
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Short-term forecasts used as input for making day-to-day decisions related to meeting demand. |
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Requirements for a product or service caused by the demand for other products or services. This type of internal demand does not need a forecast, but can be calculated based on the demand for the other products or services. |
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Demand that cannot be directly derived from the demand for other products. |
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A type of forecast in which data relating to past demand are used to predict future demand. |
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Linear Regression Forecasting |
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A forecasting technique that assumes that past data and future projections fall around a straight line. |
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A time series forecasting technique in which each increment of past demand data is decreased by (1-⍺). |
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Smoothing Constant Alpha (⍺) |
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Definition
The parameter in the exponential smoothing equation that controls the speed of reaction to differences between forecasts ad actual demand. |
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Smoothing Constant Delta (δ) |
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Definition
An additional parameter used in an exponential smoothing equation that includes a adjustment for trend. |
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Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) |
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Definition
The average forecast error using absolute values of the error of each past forecast. |
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Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) |
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Definition
The mean absolute deviation divided by the average demand. The average error expressed as a percentage of demand. |
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A measure that indicates whether the forecast average is keeping pace with any genuine upward or downward changes in demand. |
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The stock of an item or resource used in an organization. |
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Independent/Dependent Demand |
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Independent- Demands for various items are unrelated to each other.
Dependent- The need for any one item is a direct result of the need for some other item, usually an item of which it is a part. |
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Single-Period Inventory Model Examples |
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Definition
1. Hotel reservations 2. Overbooking of airline flights 3. Ordering of fashion items 4. Any type of one-time order (T-shirts for a sporting event) |
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Fixed-Order Quantity Models (Q-Model) |
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Definition
An inventory control model where the amount requisitioned is fixed and the actual ordering is triggered by inventory dropping to a specified level of inventory.
-favors more expensive items because avg inventory is lower |
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Fixed-Time Period Models (P-Model) |
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Definition
An inventory control model that specifies inventory is ordered at the end of a predetermined time period. The interval of time between orders is fixed and the order quantity varies.
-has a larger avg inventory because it must also protect against stockout during the review period |
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Definition
The amount on-hand plus on-order minus back-ordered quantities. In the case where inventory has been allocated for special purposes, the inventory position is reduced by these allocated amounts. |
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The amount of inventory carried in addition to the expected demand. |
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A physical inventory-taking technique in which inventory is counted on a frequent basis rather than once or twice a year. |
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The development and management of supplier relationships to acquire goods and services in a way that aids in achieving the immediate needs of a business. |
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When a customer allows the supplier to manage an item or group of items. |
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The variability in demand is magnified as we move from the customer to the producer in the supply chain. |
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Staples that people buy in a wide range of retail outlets, such as grocery stores and gas stations. |
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Products such as fashionable clothes and personal computers that typically have a life cycle of just a few months. |
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Moving some of a firm's internal activities and decision responsibility to outside providers. |
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Management functions that support the complete cycle of material flow: from the purchase and internal control of production materials; to the planning and control of work-in-process; tot he purchasing, shipping, and distribution of the finished product. |
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The set of policies and controls that monitor levels of inventory and determine what levels should be maintained, when stock should be replenished, and how large orders should be. |
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Generally refers to items that contribute to or become part of a firm's product output.
Classified into: -Raw materials -Finished products -Component parts -Supplies -Work-in-process |
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1. To maintain independence of operations 2. To meet variation in product demand 3. To allow flexibility in production scheduling 4. To provide a safeguard for variation in raw material delivery time 5. To take advantage of economic purchase order size |
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Definition
1. Holding (or carrying) costs -Costs for storage, handling, insurance, etc.
2. Setup (or production change) costs -Costs for arranging specific equipment setups, etc.
3. Ordering costs -Costs of someone placing an order, etc.
4. Shortage costs -Costs resulting from stock out |
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