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Epidemiology
All material for Exam2(Final)
204
Veterinary Medicine
Professional
03/11/2013

Additional Veterinary Medicine Flashcards

 


 

Cards

Term
Reliability-Precision
Definition
results of a test should not vary based on who does the test or where it is done
Term
Accuracy
Definition
test must be able to distinguish between those with disease and those without disease
Term
Usefulness
Definition
test result should have a reasonable of changing decisions
Term
Value
Definition
it may not be worth doing if it is too expensive, painful, or difficult to do
Term
index test
Definition
diagnostic tests we want to evaluate - available when gold standard is not practical (too expensive, invasive, culture, time, impractical etc)
Term
gold standard
Definition
definitive test for the disease (reference method)
Term
Sensitivity
Definition
ability of a test to accurately classify a group of patients known to have a disease
Term
specificity
Definition
ability of a test to accurately classify a group of patients to be free of a disease
Term
Sensitivity (equation)
Definition
se = TP/(TP+FN)
Term
Specificity (equation)
Definition
Sp = TN/(FP+TN)
Term
T/F? You can improve both sensitivity and specificity.
Definition
False
Term
If increase sensitivity, we will __________ secificity.
Definition
decrease
Term
If we increase specificity, we will _________ sensitivity.
Definition
decrease
Term
Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC curve)
Definition
plot of sensitivity on the y axis against (1-specificity) on the x axis for varying values of the threshold/cut off point
Term
internal validity
Definition
identify systematic errors (bias) that can affect study conclusions
Term
Three examples of internal validity
Definition
spectrum bias, verification bias (referral/work-up bias), observational bias (expectation, information bias)
Term
External validity
Definition
how the study relates to your situation or patient
Term
2 examples of external validity
Definition
is the test potentially relevant to my practice, was the spectrum of patients representative of the patients who will receive the test?
Term
Spectrum bias
Definition
when either sensitivity or specificity is overestimated
Term
When a diseased group is skewed toward highter severity that in practice - sickest of the sick
Definition
sensitivity is overestimated
Term
when non-diseased troup is skewed toward greater health - wellest of the well
Definition
specificity is overstimulated
Term
Verification (referral/work up bias)
Definition
use of new test to decide whether to apply gold standard
Term
Verification bias __________ sensitivity and _________ specificity
Definition
overestimates, underestimates
Term
Observational bias
Definition
subconsciously influenced by knowledge of the cases, the more subjective the test - the more susceptible test results are to observational bias
Term
Diagnosis is an __________ process
Definition
interactive
Term
when distinguishing abnormal from normal you will see biological variation ___________ animals and __________ animals
Definition
within animals, between animals
Term
reference ranges are
Definition
variable/guidelines
Term
abnormality is associated with
Definition
probability
Term
Normal levels for a lot of measurements
Definition
overlap for some individuals
Term
pattern matching
Definition
clinical signs observed are compared to profiles or descriptions of diseases we hold in our memory *not the best choice!
Term
probabilities
Definition
prevalence of disease for individuals with specific risk factors, frequency of occurrence of clinical signs observed within those diseases
Term
pathophysiological reasoning
Definition
system and lesion are indentified using knowledge of disease mechanisms. If a problem what is related to that problem ?
Term
Ranking is based on
Definition
clinical experience, patient's risk factors, history and physical exam, previous testing - always check the database!
Term
diagnostic test
Definition
anything that will predict the presence of disease with a greater probability than chance alone
Term
Every time you run the same sample there should be
Definition
consistency
Term
criteria for evaluating diagnostic tests
Definition
reliability-precision, accuracy, usefulness, and value
Term
precision
Definition
degree of agreement among repeated observations
Term
accuracy
Definition
degree of agreement between the observed value and the true value
Term
High precision and low accuracy
Definition
far from value, but test has high precision
Term
Intra-rater reliability
Definition
compares results when the test is administered repeatedly by the same observer (Often assumed random differences)
Term
Inter-rater reliability
Definition
compares the results when measurements are made by different observers (assumed random and systematic differences)
Term
Reliability-Precison and Accuracy
Definition
'test specific' intrinsic to the test
Term
Usefulness and Value
Definition
'context specific' dependent on test and clinical scenario
Term
Pre-test probability
Definition
what you though before, based on history and clinical examination
Term
Post-test disease probability
Definition
what you thought + what you think now due to new information and test results
Term
post test probability
Definition
ability of a test to accurately classify a patient whose disease status is unknown
Term
positive predictive value (PPV)
Definition
probability that a patient whose test result is positive has the disease
Term
negative predictive value (NPV)
Definition
probability that a patient whose test result is negative does not have the disease
Term
Look at case #1 screening test
Definition
Lecture - March 13th
Term
5 different way how you can estimate the pre-test probability of disease (some just factors, not nec. ways to estimate)
Definition
literature, local database, clinical judgement(history and clinical signs), does not have to be precise, may use range (sensitivity analysis)
Term
PPV Equation
Definition
PPV = TP/(TP+FP)
Term
NPV Equation
Definition
NPV = TN / (FN+TN)
Term
Test with high sensitivity have _______ false negative results and ______ NPV
Definition
few, high
Term
When should you use a sensitive test?
Definition
When its advantageous to 'rule out' a diagnosis in early stages of diagnostic workup to reduce number of possible diseases in list

a false negative is dangerous/penalty for missing disease (FN animal entering country - could create serious consequences) and final phases of eradication of infectious disease
Term
Tests with high specificity have _____ false positive and ______ PPV
Definition
few, high
Term
When to use a specific test
Definition
when advantageous to 'rule in' diagnosis made based on other

False positive is dangerous: if test and slaughter is measure, cost of too many FP's would be great

highly toxic treatment (cancer dignosis before chemotherapy
Term
SnNout
Definition
when a test has a high sensitivity (Sn) a negative test rules out disease
Term
SpPin
Definition
when a test has a high specificity (Sp) a positive test rules in disease
Term
Prognosis
Definition
predicting the progess or outcome of the disease
Term
2 phases of natural history of a disease
Definition
preclinical phase, clinical phase
Term
preclinical phase
Definition
disease onset, pathologic evidence of disease, signs and symptoms
Term
clinical phase
Definition
signs and symptoms, medical care sought, diagnosis, tx, outcome
Term
Natural history of a disease
Definition
disease process that unfolds over time - natural history is the sequence of developments
Term
name 4 outcomes of disease
Definition
death, cure, remission, recurrence
Term
remission
Definition
decrease or disappearance of signs and symptoms of disease
Term
recurrence
Definition
disease return
Term
Prognosis depends on....
Definition
disease phase at which disease is diagnosed
Term
case fatality
Definition
proportion of patients with a disease who die of it
Term
1-yr survial
Definition
proportion of patients who are alive one years after diagnosis
Term
Any measures used to quantify prognosis must be....
Definition
case based (denominator is the number of indiv. with the specified disease)
Term
Ways of expressing prognosis
Definition
as proportion, as time,
Term
expressing prognosis as time
Definition
median survival time
Term
median survival time
Definition
length of time that half of the study population survives
Term
other prognosis measures (3)
Definition
response, remission, recurrence
Term
response
Definition
proportion of patients showing some evidence of improvement following an intervention
Term
remission
Definition
proportion of patients entering a phase in which disease is no longer detectable
Term
recurrence
Definition
proportion of patients who experience a return of disease after a disease-free interval
Term
prognosis factor
Definition
factor able to give information on the clinical outcome of each patient; identify groups of patients with the same disease who have different prognosis
Term
Prognosis depends on
Definition
the disease phase at which disease is diagnosed
Term
Prognostic factor
Definition
factor able to give information on the clinical outcome of each patient
Term
3 prognosis factors
Definition
demographic (age), disease-specific (tumor size/metastasis at time of diagnosis), comorbidities (other patient's conditions and diseases)
Term
Cohort studies
Definition
one group of individuals with the target disorder are followed over time, the occurrence of the outcome of interest (death, recurrence, remission) is monitored
Term
Censored observation
Definition
time measure on a subject who does not have the outcome/event under study
Term
2 reasons for censored observations
Definition
animal drops out of study before having the event (incomplete follow-up, withdrawl), animal makes it to the end of the study without having the event
Term
Look at the "follow up graphs"
Definition
demonstrates prognosis etc.
Term
Kaplan-Meier Method
Definition
estamate the survival at each point in time when each death occurred; survival probabilities are not calculated at censoring times
Term
Kaplan-Meier Method equation
Definition
S(t) = {(N(t)-E(t)/(N(t)}*S(Previous Event Time)
Term
{(N(t)-E(t))/(N(t))
Definition
proportion surviving to the time t who survived beyond time t
Term
(Previous Event Time)
Definition
proportion of original sample making it to time t
Term
Critical appraisal of studies that report prognosis
Definition
inception cohort, referral patterns, follow-up completeness
Term
'Zero Time'
Definition
animals are followed from a well-defined location along the course of disease (ex: onset of symptoms, time of diagnosis, beginning of tx) should be the same for all patients
Term
'The earlier the better'
Definition
Avoid missing animals that died or recovered early on the disease course
Term
Referral patterns affect
Definition
external validity
Term
Example of how referral patterns affect external validity:
Definition
referral centers for the disease are likely to see cases with worse prognosis
Term
Long follow up study
Definition
long enough to assure every patient is followed until disease outcomes/recover
Term
follow-up study complete:
Definition
if there is a large number of loss-to-follow up (20%) prognosis becomes inaccurate. If reasons are related to follow-up risk of bias
Term
Determining if a follow-up study of patients was sufficiently complete
Definition
perform sensitivity analysis
Term
Survival curve
Definition
makes efficient use of all available data in cohort to describe prognosis
Term
prognostic factors
Definition
help us to provide case specific prognosis information
Term
studies reporting prognosis
Definition
should be clearly state the zero time, have long and complete follow up times, and account for known prognosis factors
Term
Positive Focal Scan
Definition
probability of having the disease P(TP);
probability of NOT having the disease P(FP)
Term
Negative (Non-focal scan)
Definition
probability of having the disease P(FN);
probability of NOT having the disease P(TN)
Term
Post-test disease probability

(equation)
Definition
pre-test disease probability + negative results = post-test disease probability
Term
Do the post-test probability questions in the PPT (causation 4th)
Definition
okay, will do
Term
Risk factor
Definition
factor that changes the risk (probability) of developing an outcome (disease) in the future
Term
risk factor example
Definition
cholesterol and heart disease in humans
castration and prostatic cancer in dogs
tv watching and childhood obesity
diet and metabolic diseases in dairy cows
Term
Association
Definition
statistical relationship between two or more events, characteristics or other variables
Term
Causation
Definition
change in one variable is responsible, directly or indirectly, for an observed change in another variable
Term
Do epidemiologic studies prove causation
Definition
NO. Epidemiological studies cannot prove that causation occurs, but they may be useful in supporting a causal association
Term
Chance
Definition
always the possibility that na observed association is due to chance alone
Term
An association can be due to (4 things)
Definition
chance, bias, confounding, causation!
Term
bias
Definition
association results form errors in the study, design, implementation, or analysis
Term
confounding
Definition
relationship distorted by add'l variables (confounder), which is associated to the factor under study and the disease
Term
Algorithm for associations
Definition
rule out random error, rule out bias, valid associton (often using criteria ex: Hill's)
Term
Spurious association
Definition
chance and bias
Term
Real association
Definition
confounding and causation
Term
hierarchy of study design to establish cause-effect associations
Definition
from - strength of evidence to +
case report, case series, case control/cross sectional, cohort, randomized clinical trial
Term
Descriptive studies
Definition
studies designed to describe population characteristics =, such as occurrence of disease by time and place
Term
Analytical studies
Definition
studies designed to examine etiology and casual associations
Term
Descriptive studies do not have
Definition
a comparison group
Term
uses of descriptive studies
Definition
trend analysis, surveillance, health-care planning, and hypothesis generation
Term
Is there a risk in overstepping the data in a descriptive study?
Definition
Yes
Term
Case Report
Definition
detailed presentation of a single case, least publishable unit in med lit, asks the W questions, generally not representative of the general course of disease, successful outcome (unusual tx)
Term
Case series
Definition
Collection of cases, useful to describe clinical characteristics, clinical course of disease, and natural history of disease; surveillance: first signs of new disease; hypothesis generation
Term
Analytical studies
Definition
study associations, comparison group; exposure to outcome
Term
if exposure is applied by researcher it is
Definition
an experimental study (randomized controlled trial)
Term
Observational studies
Definition
classified based on the temporal direction of the trial
Term
Cross-sectional study
Definition
defined population --> gather data on exposure and diseaes --> exposure/disease factors
Term
Case control study
Definition
defined population, cases vs controls
Term
Cohort study
Definition
defined population with choice or circumstance --> exposed vs not exposed over time --> outcome (disease/no disease)
Term
prospective cohort study
Definition
from defined population to new data collection and hypothesized outcome of disease in the future; forcasting disease!
Term
retrospective cohort study
Definition
use of existent datasets to track past disease over time
Term
2 Criteria to establish cause and effect associations
Definition
ability to establish temporal sequence of events; risk of bias
Term
Bias
Definition
error in the study that produces results that depart systematically from the truth
Term
two types of bias
Definition
selection bias, observational (information) bias
Term
selection bias
Definition
stems from an absence of comparability between groups being studied (unbalanced groups)
Term
observational (information) bias
Definition
when information on exposure, outcome, and/or covariates of interest is collected differently between groups
Term
case control study =
Definition
retrospective study
Term
cohort study =
Definition
longitudinal study = prostpective study
Term
prospective cohort study =
Definition
concurrent cohort study = concurrent prospective study
Term
retrospective cohort study =
Definition
historical cohort study = non-concurrent prospective study
Term
randomized trial =
Definition
experiemtnal study
Term
cross-sectional study =
Definition
prevalence survey
Term
When do we use information on incidience? Used in studies to:
Definition
predict the risk to develop disease, associate risk factors to disease, predict prognosis, and evaluate new therapies
Term
Relative risk
Definition
risk ratio
Term
attributable risk
Definition
risk difference
Term
measures of risk at the individual level
Definition
relative risk, attributable risk
Term
Relative risk
Definition
ex: 'how many times MORE LIKELY' are exposed individuals to become more diseased, RELATIVE to non-exposed indiv?'
Term
Relative risk eqn
Definition
RR = IE/INE
Term
LOOK AT RELATIVE RISK OF DISEASE INTERPRETATION SLIDE - causality iii april 16
Definition
okay
Term
Attributable risk
Definition
what is the risk of disease attributable to the exposure
Term
attributable risk eqn
Definition
AR = IE-INE
Term
Measures of risk at the population level (2)
Definition
population attributable risk and population attributable fraction
Term
population attributable risk
Definition
predicts the reduction in risk achievable if a risk factor is removed from the population
Term
population attributable risk eqn
Definition
ARp = AR * Pexp
Term
population attributable proportion
Definition
measure of what proportion of disease in a population is attributable to the risk factors
Term
Population attributable proportion
Definition
AFp = AR/(Pexp * IE + (1-Pexp) * INE)
Term
Koch's Postulates
Definition
Organism present in every case
Isolate from case and grow in pure culture
Organism causes disease when inoculated into susceptible animal
Organism can be recovered from animal and identified
Term
Hill's Criteria
Definition
separation of strong and weak criteria
Term
Temporality (VERY important)
Definition
cause must precede effect in time, criterion is inarguable, study designs based on temporal sequence
Term
strength of association
Definition
the stronger the relationship between the independent variable (risk factor) and the dependent variable (disease), less likely that relationship is due to something else or by chance
Term
Biological gradient:
Definition
does increased exposure result in more of the outcome
Term
Consistency
Definition
has effect been seen by others
Term
Cats, as DH play role in trasmission of T. gondii. A study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors for T. gondii infection in domestic casts. Serum of cats was tested. To ID risk factors for infection a questionnarie was administered to the cat owners when they visit the vet to draw blood. the study is best described as
Definition
cross-sectional study
Term
study investigated the effect of lameness on repro performance on several commercial dairies. existent data collected during routine herd health and production control program was used o address the question. two groups were generated from th original dataset (cows with and without lameness). this is best described as
Definition
retrospective cohort study
Term
during fall and early winter vets reported an unusual cluster of neurologic illness. horses had ataxia primarily on rear limb and muscle fasciculations or trembling. Many had acute onset. This was the first reported WNV outbreak among horses in USA
Definition
case series
Term
To compare incidence of and breed-related risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) among several dog breeds, owners of dogs that did not have a history of GDV were recruited at dog shows. Information concerning the dogs' medical history, genetic background, personality, and diet was obtained from owners, and owners were contacted by mail and telephone at approximately 1-year intervals to determine whether dogs had developed GDV or died. This study is best described as:
Definition
prospective cohort study
Term
A study aimed to identify risk factors for colic caused by simple colonic obstruction and distension in horses. Colic horses were recruited from 2 veterinary school clinics. Healthy horses were chosen by selecting randomly an owner from those who had brought a horse to the same Veterinary School in the previous calendar year. A questionnaire was design to identify risk factors. This study is best described as:
Definition
cohort study
Term
3 steps of decision making-therapy
Definition
Identify objective of treatment, select treatment, specify treatment target
Term
3 steps in how to decide which treatment to prescribe
Definition
induction, deduction, faith
Term
Induction
Definition
no control, regression to the mean, cure and remission are outcomes of disease, misdiagnosis, 'seems to work'
Term
Randomization
Definition
all participants have the same chance of being assigned to each of the study groups
Term
Randomization
Definition
ensures groups in clinical trials are comparable, reduces risk of selection bias, most powerful method of eliminating known and unknown confounding variables
Term
simple randomization
Definition
sequence based on a random-number
Term
Allocation concealment
Definition
clinicians should be UNAWARE of which treatment the next patient is receiving
Term
Comparison groups
Definition
no intervention, observation, placebo tx, standard drug tx
Term
Hawthorne effect
Definition
effect (usually positive or beneficial) of being included in a scientific study (can be a response of the animal owner)
Term
Placebo
Definition
an inactive substance, means 'I do nothing' in Latin
Term
Placebo effect
Definition
beneficial and attributable to the expectation that the regimen will have an effect; not acceptable in life-threatening conditions
Term
Blinding
Definition
keeping individuals involved in the study unaware of the assigned intervention
Term
Types of blinding (3)
Definition
Single (owner), double (owner + vet), triple (owner + vet + person analyzing data)
Term
benefits of blinding
Definition
minimize observation bias, improve patient compliance and retention, reduce co-interventions
Term
Cats, as definitive hosts, play an important role in the transmission of Toxoplasma gondii. A study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors for T. gondii infection in domestic cats. Serum samples of cats were tested for T. gondii antibodies. To identify the risk factors for infection with T. gondii in cats, a questionnaire was administered to the cat owners when they visit the veterinary to draw the blood sample. This study is best described as
Definition
cross sectional study
Term
A study investigated the effect of lameness on reproductive performance on several commercial dairy farms. The existent data collected during the routine herd health and production control program was used to address the question. Two groups were generated from the original dataset (cows with and without lameness). This study is best described as
Definition
retrospective cohort study
Term
During fall and early winter 1999, veterinarians with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the New York Department of Agriculture and Markets reported an unusual cluster of neurologic illness in horses on Long Island. The investigators described twenty cases of equine neurologic illness. Horses had ataxia (95.7%), primarily rear limb (90.5%,) and muscle fasciculations or trembling (55%). Many had acute onset (90.5%). This was the first reported West Nile Virus outbreak among horses in USA. This study is best described as
Definition
case series
Term
To compare incidence of and breed-related risk factors for gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) among several dog breeds, owners of dogs that did not have a history of GDV were recruited at dog shows. Information concerning the dogs' medical history, genetic background, personality, and diet was obtained from owners, and owners were contacted by mail and telephone at approximately 1-year intervals to determine whether dogs had developed GDV or died. This study is best described as:
Definition
Prospective cohort study
Term
A study aimed to identify risk factors for colic caused by simple colonic obstruction and distension in horses. Colic horses were recruited from 2 veterinary school clinics. Healthy horses were chosen by selecting randomly an owner from those who had brought a horse to the same Veterinary School in the previous calendar year. A questionnaire was design to identify risk factors. This study is best described as:
Definition
case-control study
Term
Gold standard for evaluating the efficacy of therapeutic and preventative interventions
Definition
randomized controlled trial
Term
2 important features of randomized controlled trials
Definition
randomization and blinding
Term
Intention to treat analysis (2) rules
Definition
use every subject who was randomized according to randomized treatment assignment; ignore compliance protocol deviations, withdrawal, and anything that happens after randomization
Term
Compliance and Intention to treat eqn
Definition
look at slides in therapy II ppt
Term
p-value
Definition
probability of obtaining the results observed, if there are no difference between the two groups to be compared (due to chance)
Term
null hypotheses
Definition
no real difference betwee nthe two groups to be compared
Term
Type I error (alpha): False Positive
Definition
risk of concluding that there is a difference in outcome among groups when, in fact, there is not
Term
Type II error (beta): False negative
Definition
concluding that tx does not work when in fact it does
Term
Power: 1-beta
Definition
the probability to identify an effect of tx, if one exists; analogous to the sensitivity of diagnostic test
Term
if p-value high...
Definition
the chance of obtaining the same results as the experiemtn is high
Term
underpowered studies (3)
Definition
small sample sized; studies with statistically non- significant results and low power are inconclusive; common problem
Term
the research plan should be formally stated where?
Definition
in a protocol
Term
protocol for clinical trial (4)
Definition
procedures for handling problem cases, procedure for informed consent, sample size calculations and procedure for analyzing results, appendices: forms
Term
Owner's consent
Definition
informed consent
Term
Look through owner's consent obligations
Definition
okay
Term
publication bias
Definition
refers to the greater likelihood that studies with positive results will be published
Term
publication bias - does it matter? (5)
Definition
distorts the scientific record; hides truth;influences clinician's decision making; misleads policy makers; causes harm to patients
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