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Econ 210
Chapter 7: Rational Expectations
13
Economics
Undergraduate 4
10/18/2008

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Term
Adaptive Expectations
Definition
Expectations formed from passed experience
Typically a weighted average
Term
Rational Expectations
Definition
Using all relevant information available to form an optimal forecast of the future
Term
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Definition
Uses rational expectations to say that all unexploited profit opportunities will be eliminated
Term
Weak EMH
Definition
All historical price info recorded in price (no technical analysis)
Term
Semi-strong EMH
Definition
All publicly know information is reflected in stock price (no fundamental analysis)
Term
Strong EMH
Definition
All information publicly available or not is reflected in stock price (no insider information)
Term
Small firm effect
Definition
Stocks issued by small companies have earned higher risk adjusted returns than other stocks
Term
January Effect
Definition
Stock prices tend to rise sharply from December to January
Term
Market Overreaction(excessive volatility)
Definition
Stock Prices Overreact to bad news and good news
Term
Mean reversion
Definition
Stocks with low returns in the past are more likely to do well in the future (reverse is also true)
Term
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Definition
1. Individuals are risk adverse and expect to be compensated for assumed risk
2. Two kind of risk, specific (company) and market (vulnerability to market conditions)
3. Specific risk can be eliminated through diversification
Term
Levels of Market Risk
Definition
B=0 --> no market risk
B=1 --> index level risk
B>1 --> stock more volatile than market
B<1 --> stock less volatile than market
Term
CAPM Equation
Definition
Ri = Rf + B(Rm - Rf)

Ri = Rate of return for stock i
Rf = Risk free return
B = Beta of security
Rm = Market rate of return
Rm - Rf = Market risk premium
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