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| The Third Wave (Huntington) |
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Definition
| The third major surge of democratisation in world history in the early 1990s. |
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| Democracy is the only game in town |
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| Leaders could opt out of reform if they had domestic capital |
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- One-party states a better foundation for democracy than military rule because civil society is coopted
- Countries that had domestic protests were more likely to have democratic transitions that were more transformative and successful |
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| No "true" democracies anywhere in the world so we have to settle for an elected official |
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- International linkage high
- Domestic leverage low |
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| Personality of leaders had a great impact on the nature of the Third Wave |
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Potential Paths for "grey zone" states":
- progression towards democracy
- stagnation/cycles
- authoritarian regression
- elections not always reliable expressions of the "will of the people" |
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| Electoral authoritarianism combines democratic and authoritarian features |
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| African states provide infertile terrain for democracy because they are too poor, too fragmented and unstable |
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| Democratisation process is controlled by a small number of people wielding a disproportionate amount of power |
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- Virtual democracies
- "Grey zone" of electoral authoritarianism
- Not a linear progression to democracy but electoral authoritarianism represents a new regime type |
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| Civil society lacks the resources that allow people to participate in daily debates |
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-Even if elections are not 100% great, there is a process of reinforcement of democratic values and norms
- International actors have focused on elections |
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| Donors have helped to support civil society which helps make the conditions of democracy better by circumventing the corruption of the state |
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| Donors have legitimised elections that were blatantly problematic |
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| International actors promote elections at the expense of more thoroughgoing reforms |
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Chian gives aid to Africa because of:
-Strategic diplomacy
- Commercial benefit
- Reflection of their society's values |
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| Western countries are rather hypocritical in their criticisms of China |
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| China provides "fewer lectures and more practical help" to Africa |
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- Electoral Violence = All forms of organised threats with a view to determining, delaying or otherwise influencing an electoral process
- Can be done by both opposition and incumbent |
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- Gatekeeper states
- Mediator between external and internal forces |
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| Institutions and procedures introduced while underlying structures of power and political norms have not been transformed |
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| Kenya's constitution remains largely unmodified and continues to put great power in the executive |
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| Hard to build democracy when political parties are dependent on clientelist and ethnic bases |
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- "The dark side of democracy"
- Society made particularly vulnerable to destabilisation of democracy when ethnic and class divisions are fused together |
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| Long history of ethnic divisions and competition |
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- Autochtony
- When who constitutes "the people" conflated with a single ethnic group |
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| Popular belief that the Tutsi were feudal colonists trying to take the ancestral land of the hutu away from them |
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- Elaborate constitutional engineering
- Just because power sharing has historically failed in Africa doesn't invalidate the case for consociationalism |
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- Opposition in Burundi believed that the game had been rigged from the start
- A success to the extent that the consociational agreement saved lives |
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| "Bottom-up process of democratisation" e.g. Somaliland |
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- People in Somaliland have crafted a system of representative politics suited to their own needs
- Democracy in Africa does not necessarily have to fit into the Western paradigm |
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| New parties in Somaliland are controlled by old elites and clan politics still dominate |
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| Arend Lijphart and Consociationalism |
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Definition
- Grand coalition government i.e. power sharing in the executive branch
- Minority overrepresentation or parity to protect interest
- Minority veto
- Segmented autonomy |
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| Consociationalism "freezes" people's identities and therefore deepens cleavages and divisions |
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| Cheeseman's conditions for destabilising elections |
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Definition
- Incumbents determined to retain power
- Politicised communal identities
- Compromised institutions, especially electoral institutions
- Lack of effective rule of law
- Lack of cohesive national identity
- No monopoly over the legitimate use of force |
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| Power sharing creates incentives for aspiring politicians to ignite insurgencies |
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- Economic collapse
- Domestic protests
- International actors |
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| Conditions for Democratic Reform |
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- Reliance on IC and few natural resources
- Pressure from below
- Personality of leaders
- low value of office and high cost of repression |
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| Why stuck in the "grey zone"? |
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Definition
- Lack of supportive elites
- Weak civil society
- Lack of supportive IC
- Poor
- Weak institutions |
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| States likely to stay in the "grey zone"? |
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Definition
- Positive democratic progression
- Stagnation/Cycles
- Authoritarian regression |
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| How donors have helped democracy |
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Definition
- Aid conditionality used as leverage
- Focus on elections to engrain democratic norms
- Supporting civil society
- Big contributing factor to the Third Wave
- But these programs have not been applied consistently |
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| How donors have hindered democracy |
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Definition
- Legitimising elections that were blatantly problematic
- Elections over thoroughgoing reforms
- Lack of consistent international position |
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- No questions asked policies
- Scramble for resources
- Western hypocrisy
- China gives a lot of aid
- But African leaders can play countries off against each other
- Role of China largely exaggerated |
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| Conditions under which international actors promote democracy |
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Definition
- higher levels of aid dependency
- low geostrategic importance
- strong institutions and opposition
- Concerted, unified international community |
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| Why so much electoral violence? |
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Definition
- Elites => Access to resources
- Flawed electoral processes and institutions
- Informalisation of violence
- Politicisation of ethnicity |
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- Long history of ethnic violence and competition
- Autochtony
- Fusion of class and ethnic divisions
- Democracy provided the spark that sent Rwanda over the edge |
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| Benefits of Power Sharing |
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Definition
- Stops conflict and saves lives by bringing people to the negotiating table
- Can help remove ethnic dynamics
- Helps reinforce democratic principles
- Promotes elite cohesion |
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| Drawbacks of Power Sharing |
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Definition
- Relies on political will
- Favours the incumbent
- Entrenches ethnicity
- Has rarely been implemented correctly |
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- Elected president with two VPs from different ethnic groups
- Ministeril posts distributed according to party's proportion in the National Assembly
- 60% of govt. seat for Hutus and 40% for Tutsis (Military 50:50)
- Need 2/3 majority means Tutsi support is needed
- No segmented autonomy |
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| Cheeseman's Dynamics of Power Sharing |
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Definition
| - Two factors: distribution of violence & elite cohesion - Politics of Distrust e.g. DRC - Politics of Collusion e.g. Kenya - Politics of Partisanship e.g. Zimbabwe - Politics of Pacting e.g. South Africa |
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| Burundi becomes a "distorted mirror" for Rwandans to each see the other's worst nightmare |
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