IPCC- Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change

Increase in global surface temperature, average glogal sea level and decrease in northern hemisphere snow cover.

• Phenological changes
• Changes in species morphology, behaviour and physiology
• Changes in species distribution
• Outbreak of disease and pests
• Changes in stream flow, droughts, floods impacted by biodiversity
• Changes in high-lattitude system in the N. hemisphere

• Coral reefs affected by rising sea temperatures
• Disease and toxicity in coastal systems
• Changes in fish population linked to large scale oscillations
• Fluctuations in marine bird mammals

CASE STUDY

Example of phenological change

Khanduri et al. (2004)

Plants- 650 temperate species recorded spring advancement by 1.9 days and delay of 1.4 days in autumn. Avg length of growing season extended by 3.3 days.

Jonzen et al. (2006)

4 bird observatories record lond distance migrants from 1980-2004

Redwing are short distance and long distance are barn owl- barn owl adapted better to the season changes.

CASE STUDIES

Morphology, behaviour and physiology

CASE STUDY

Changes in distrubution

Monitoring of buttefly species distribution and abundance in UK.

25 sp (25%) spread north, 2 species increased by 100% and 6 other species by 50%.

Abundance has decreased the most since the 1800s.

11 species declined by 40% and 5 are extinct.

CASE STUDY

Outbreaks of disease and pests

Ecuador NW cloudforests

Alpine communities effected most by climate change with warmer nights, cooler days and increased rainfall.

Jumbato toad tought extinct

Each hot year has been followed by extinction due to chitrid fungus- temp change usually kills fungus. With climate change stabilising the temp is ideal for chitrid fungus to thrive.

CASE STUDY

Changes is stream flow, droughts, floods

Harrison (2001) Borneo

1999 caused by El Nino reduced the fig populaton and had knock on effects for pollinators.

CASE STUDY

High-lattitude ecosystem in N hemisphere

Areas of arctic show 5°c increase in 20th century

Growing degree days up by 20% in Alaska

Boreal forests therefore expanding at 100-150km/°c

CASE STUDY

Coral reefs adversely affected

High temperature causes the zooplankton to produce superoxides and other toxic by-products. Toxins contribute to coral stress and cause bleachong. Can recover within certain period of time.

Sever global bleaching in 1997/8 El Nino.

CASE STUDY

Disease and toxicity impacted coast ecosystems

CASE STUDY

Changes in fish populations linked to large scale oscilations

El Nino

Tarde winds from S America to SE Asia power deepwater nutrients to the peruvian coasts. Areduced pressure in S America causes the ocean conveyor to become cut off and causing fisheries to collapse.

Thomas et al. (2008)

Tropical rainforest: 6.3% species lost by 2050

Mid range climate scenario: 15-37% species lost by 2050

• Mean annual precipitation
• Mean annual surface air temperature
• Change in mean annual temp relative to mean annual warming
• Interannual variability

Delays in negotiations post-kyoto protocol means impacts are more severe

Priority-setting must take into account unevenly distibuted threats

Important first teap: further our understanding of future impacts.