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Categories of Decision Situations |
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Situations in which:
- probabilities cannot be assigned to future occurrences
- Situations in which probailites can be assigned
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is a means of organizing a decision situation, presenting the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature.
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the decision maker selects the decision that will result in the maximum of maximum payoffs; an optimistic criterion.
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the decision maker selects the decision that will reflect the maximum of the minimumpayoffs; a pessimistic criterion.
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the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs.
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by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes the maximum regret.
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is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria |
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coefficient of optimism, a:
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is a measure of the decision maker’s optimism |
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Hurwicz criterion multiplies:
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the best payoff by aand the worst payoff by 1- a, for each decision, and the best result is selected
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equal likelihood( or Laplace) criterion
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multiplies the decision payoff for each state of nature by an equal weight, thus assuming that the states of nature are equally likely
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one that has a better payoff than another decision under each state of nature. |
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appropriate criterion is dependent on: |
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the “risk” personality and philosophy of the decision maker |
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computed by multiplying each decision outcome under each state of nature by the probability of its occurrence.
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expected opportunity loss: |
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is the expected value of the regret for each decision |
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expected value of perfect information (EVPI): |
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is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
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expected value given perfect information minus the expected value without perfect information |
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expected opportunity loss (EOL) for the best decision. |
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That is it for chapter 8 notes |
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