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Chapter 8 Management Sciences
Decision Analysis Chapter 8
19
Business
Undergraduate 4
10/11/2012

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Cards

Term
Categories of Decision Situations
Definition

Situations in which:

  1. probabilities cannot be assigned to future occurrences
  2. Situations in which probailites can be assigned
Term

 

payoff table 

Definition

is a means of organizing a decision situation, presenting the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature.

Term

maximax criterion

Definition

the decision maker selects the decision that will result in the maximum of maximum payoffs; an optimistic criterion.

Term

maximin criterion 

Definition

the decision maker selects the decision that will reflect the maximum of the minimumpayoffs; a pessimistic criterion.

Term

Regret is: 

Definition

the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs.

Term

avoid regret by: 

Definition

by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes the maximum regret.

Term

Hurwicz criterion: 

Definition

is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria

Term

coefficient of optimism, a:

Definition

is a measure of the decision maker’s optimism

Term

Hurwicz criterion multiplies: 

Definition

the best payoff by aand the worst payoff by 1- a, for each decision, and the best result is selected

Term

equal likelihood( or Laplace) criterion

   

Definition

multiplies the decision payoff for each state of nature by an equal weight, thus assuming that the states of nature are equally likely 

Term

dominant decision is 

 

 

Definition
one that has a better payoff than another decision under each state of nature.
Term
appropriate criterion is dependent on: 
Definition
the “risk” personality and philosophy of the decision maker
Term

Expected value is: 

Definition

computed by multiplying each decision outcome under each state of nature by the probability of its occurrence.

Term
expected opportunity loss:
Definition
is the expected value of the regret for each decision
Term
expected value of perfect information (EVPI): 
Definition

is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

Term
EVPI equals the: 
Definition
expected value given perfect information minus the expected value without perfect information
Term
EVPI aslo equals the: 
Definition
expected opportunity loss (EOL) for the best decision.
Term
That is it for chapter 8 notes
Definition
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