Term
by theory, required return should depend on the |
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risk of investment, but there is a reward for bearing risk. greater potential reward, greater risk. |
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percentage return on a security is the percentage change in wealth tom holding a security over a period of time |
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r1=D1/P0+ P1-P0/P0 percentage changes are used to standardize the size of the investment |
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dividends and capital gains |
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dollar returns are labeled: |
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Term
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dividend yield + capital gains yield |
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How much do you have at the end of the year if your total investment is $1000? (example) |
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investment x (1+total percentage return) |
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higher return, and more uncertainty |
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Arithmatic Average Return |
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the MEAN of yearly returns (sum of the yearly returns divided by the number of years) what you earned in a typical year investment return + investment return/time |
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the average compound return earned per year over the investment period (what you actually earned per year on average [its analogous to an IRR] [(1+r1)*(1+r2)*...]^1/t-1 *better in long term* |
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the reward (extra return) for bearing risk the difference between a risky investment return and the risk free rate gives the risk premium |
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treasury bills are considered to be |
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risky investment return - risk free rate = |
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variance or standard deviation of returns |
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Term
Historical Variance is divided by T-1 because |
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Definition
we used one "degree of freedom" to estimate the mean |
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Historial Variance formula |
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(r1-mean)^2+(r2-mean)^2+.../T-1 |
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Standard Deviation is the |
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square root of the variance |
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Term
Risky investments an earn a |
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Term
the greater the potential reward, the |
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Term
What causes stock price fluctuation? |
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prices change as new information arrives and investors reassess values based on that information |
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Term
the market is efficient when |
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prices adjust quickly and correctly when new information arrives |
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stock prices are "fairly" priced and fully reflect available information earn a return appropriate for level of risk taken should not be able to earn "abnormal" returns |
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Efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) |
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Definition
asserts that modern US stock markets are efficient securities represent ZERO NPV investments (expected to return exactly their risk-adjusted rate) |
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The 3 Forms of Market Efficiency based on how much info is impounded in stock prices |
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Definition
Weak (past prices of that stock) Semi-strong (all public information) Strong (all info, public and private) |
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at a minimum, the current price reflects the stock's own past prices the current price reflects all the info from the stock's own past prices can't make abnormal returns on the basis of a stock's historical prices Empirical evidence generally supports Weak form efficiency |
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Semi-Strong form efficiency |
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Definition
all public information (news, finance. statements) is reflected in stock prices very controversial Implies that Fundamental Analysis won't provide excess returns Doesn't mean Fundamental Analysis is useless. (without it markets wouldn't be efficient) evidence generally supports semi-strong |
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all information of every kind is reflected (including inside info) implies that even insiders with special knowledge cannot make an abnormal profit not much support for strong regulations against insider trading is evidence against it |
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on average, greater risk yields |
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standard deviation of returns is a measure of |
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