Conceptual model of the factors affecting the period TFR

- A woman’s observed fertility results from her intended fertility multiplied by a set of factors that are not or cannot be subsumed under her fertility intentions

- These factors are unwanted fertility, gender preferences, replacement effects, tempo effects, infecundability, and competition

- A parameter of greater than 1.0 for these factors indicate that they increase fertility relative to intentions, and a parameter of less than 1.0 indicates that they decrease fertility relative to intentions

 “The causes of stalling fertility transitions.” Studies in Family Planning, 37(1), 1-16

- Paper examines the causes of stalling in 7 countries in which fertility did not decline between two Demographic and Health Surveys, despite being in the middle of their fertility transition

- Finds that stall was accompanied by a leveling off of demand for contraception and contraceptive use

- No common trend in socioeconomic determinants of stall and no association between access to birth control and stall

- However, 5 of the 7 countries displayed fertility that was unusually low given their level of economic development

- In order to end fertility stalls, public policy must somehow decrease women’s desired level of fertility

- Improvements in socioeconomic conditions and investments in human capital (particularly female education) may be effective

“Unmet need for family planning in developing countries and implications for public policy.” Population and Development Review, 26(4), 691-723.

- Unmet need for family planning refers to the condition of wanting to avoid or postpone childbearing but not using any method of contraception; also known as the:

KAP gap for knowledge, attitudes, and practice regarding family planning

Objective of paper is to examine the utility of unmet need for family planning as an organizing concept for population policies and for reproductive health and family planning programs

- History of research on unmet need for contraception

- The so-called KAP surveys of the 1960s showed that in nearly all societies a discrepancy existed between women’s reproductive preferences and behavior

- The World Fertility Surveys (WFS) of the 1970s and 80s had surprisingly little to say on the subject

- Greater attention was paid to the unmet need for contraception in the Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys (CPS), which ran from 1978-1984

- An analysis published in 1994 by Sinding et al. showed that in nearly all countries with specified demographic fertility targets, satisfying the unmet need for contraception would obviate the need for such targets

- As a result, reducing unmet need became a target in itself rather than a means for achieving demographic goals

Debate regarding the validity of the concept

- Some have argued that unmet need does not refer to a valid behavioral phenomenon because women in surveys are typically not asked directly about whether they perceive any inconsistency between their fertility preferences and contraceptive practice

- Unmet need is therefore based on inferences made by the researcher that women who state a desire to postpone or terminate childbearing would like to take actions to avoid births and that this action should take the form of contraception

- However, qualitative research indicates that unmet need really is a valid phenomenon

Usefulness of the concept for explaining the fertility transition

- Some researchers have argued that reducing unmet need does not explain fertility reductions above and beyond reducing the desire for children

- Empirical research by Feyisetan and Casterline (2000) suggests this is not the case; substantial increases in contraceptive prevalence can be achieved in the absence of changes in the demand for children through the satisfaction of already-existing demand for fertility regulation

Usefulness of the concept for family planning and policy

- Some have argued that if women really wanted to regulate their fertility they would find the means to do so

- However, this overlooks the role of competing preferences

- Most research indicates that inadequate access to contraception is not one of the predominant causes of unmet need

3 main causes of unmet need are:

1. lack of necessary knowledge about contraceptive methods,

2. social opposition to their use (primarily perceived opposition from husbands) and

3. health concerns about possible side effects

Policies that aim to increase contraceptive use must focus on eliminating these obstacles

Empirical research by suggests substantial increases in contraceptive prevalence can be achieved in the absence of changes in the demand for children through the satisfaction of already-existing demand for fertility regulation

“The limits to low fertility: A biosocial approach.”

- Questions of concern to demographers today:

1. how low can fertility fall?

2. whether, given true choice in the matter for the first time in history, humans might cease to reproduce altogether given the high physiological, temporal, and financial costs involved in raising children for the required 20 years or so?

Foster argues that humans’ (especially women’s) “need to nurture” will prevent fertility from falling even further

- Women have a biologically based predisposition toward nurturing or maternal behavior that interacts with environmental stimuli, resulting, in most cases, in a conscious motivation for bearing at least one child

- A number of factors modify the relationship between this predisposition to nurture and the decision to have a child, including:

1) being in a relationship with a like-minded partner,

2) perceived costs of childbearing,

3) perceived benefits of childbearing,

4) financial circumstances,

5) career opportunity costs, and

6) age

 analysis showed that in nearly all countries with specified demographic fertility targets, satisfying the unmet need for contraception would obviate the need for such targets

- As a result, reducing unmet need became a target in itself rather than a means for achieving demographic goals