Term
Decision Theory assumes:
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Definition
1. actions are a series of mental cognitve decisions
2. choices depend on expected outcomes from choice
3. outcomes are evaluated by utility
4. that humans make rational decisions |
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| • Ex: in book: share crabs instinctively seekout m sized crabs bc large muscles dont have enough food |
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| o Maximization principle not always cognitive |
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| according to text maximazation prinicple |
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| Best for organism and part of evolution and... |
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| DT makes accurate predictions in lab, but the real world is more complicated bc: |
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1. value changes, then probability changes
2. outcomes may be uncertain and might not have enough info to determine probability
3. possible outcomes can be known, but not cognitive available
4. outcomes are a mix of good and bad= complicated calculation of value |
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| to choose the option with expected utility following maximation principle and DT it req |
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| Rational decisions dont guarantee |
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| • Rationality in DT is defined by the process |
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| of making a decision not the outcome of that decision and and conversely an irrational decision can result in an increase desirable outcome. |
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• Share Pasteur with other farmers
• Accordingto DT what should we do (go out and get as much as we can)
• What happens
• What does it sound familiar to
IE shared resources |
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| Alternatives to using rationally to maximize |
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determine criteria for goal
mentally consider possible options, moving from most to least obvious |
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| 1st option meets your criteria |
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| satisficing is better than DT bc |
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less time and less effort
not thinking of everying pro/con. it just meets your own critieria |
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| might miss better options not considered. less available options wont be at top of list |
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| bettering (melioration)- good and bad- |
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| req least amount of time, info, effort but insensitive to long term consequences |
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| • Bettering (melioration) chooses an option- |
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| o Choosing an option that is better (just a little) than what you currently have. |
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| • New relationship every 2 weeks, downside will never get to marriage and true intimate relationships |
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| least important decisions |
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| o Steps/process for bettering |
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• No deliberate evaluation of options beyond “Is this a new option better than what I currently have?”
Continuous! |
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• Mollys lease is almost up and she wants to find a better place to live in pullman
• Her primary criteria for housing are:
No mold, functional appliances, assurances that the parking lot is cleared inwinter
• On Sat, molly goes to rental and first listing meets all criteria. Is this an example of rational decision making? |
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| : NO, bc it is the 1st one and didn’t look at any other options |
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| o Maximization as a mechanism |
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• Cognitive approach (as in Decision theory
• Explain how decisions are made
Actor anticipates outcomes
Calculates expected utilities of all possible options
Chooses action/option w/greatest expected utility |
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