“Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations.” Demography, 45(3), 641-650.

Uses stable-population model to examine how net migration into low fertility countries in Europe could be used to alleviate population decline

- Demonstrates that migration can increase the growth rate of a country, which tend to make the age distribution younger

- However, migration can also be viewed as accelerating population aging, because incoming migrants are inevitably older than newborns

- Overall, migration appears to be a solution to slowing down population aging and to maintaining population size

The Age of Migration: International Population Movements in the Modern World.” Chs. 1, 2, 4, and 6.

Ch.1: Introduction

- Since 9/11, population movements have been viewed with much more scrutiny

- Very difficult to tell how many international migrants there are in the world

- A report by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) indicated that the number of migrants doubled between 1965 and 2000, from 75 million to 150 million

- Over 2% of the world’s population has lived outside its national borders for at least 12 months

- Most likely there has been a remarkable upsurge in illegal migration in recent decades, but again, it’s difficult to tell

Certain general tendencies of world migration in recent years include. . .

 - The globalization of migration; i.e. the tendency for more and more countries to be affected by migration

- The acceleration of migration in all major regions of the world

- The differentiation of types of migration (labor, refugees, family reunification, etc.) within the same country at the same time

- The feminization of migration; i.e. women migrating not only for family reunion, but also as labor migrants (major example: Filipino women to Middle East)

- The growing politicization of migration

Ch. 2: The migratory process and the formation of ethnic minorities

3 main theories of why people migrate

1. Economic (push-pull) theories suggest that certain factors compel people to leave one area while certain pull factors attract them to another

- Push factors include demographic growth, low living standards, lack of economic opportunities, and political repression

- Pull factors include demand for labor, availability of land, economic opportunities, and political freedom

- Economic theories have been criticized as too individualistic; empirical studies cast doubt on hypothesis that individuals migrate to maximize economic utility

2. Historical-structural theories suggest that rich capitalist countries exploit poorer countries by recruiting their cheap, foreign labor

3. Migration-systems theory takes an interdisciplinary approach and suggests that migration is the result of macro-level structures (such as a history of colonization or trade between 2 countries) interacting with micro-level structures (such as individual desire for economic gain, informal networks of friends and community members, etc.)

Emergence of discourse on transnationalism

- Globalization and improvements in technology have led to immigrants becoming attached to both new home and country of origin

- In light of transnationalism, migrants will likely maintain closer ties to countries of origin in the future

Discourse on the formation of ethnic minorities

- Minorities are created by their subordinate position in society and a sense of collective consciousness

Ch. 4: Migration to developed countries since 1945

 3 major migratory flows 1945-1970

 1. Migration of workers from the European periphery to Western Europe, often through “guestworker systems”

 - For instance, France and West Germany recruited temporary foreign workers

2. Migration of colonial workers to former colonial powers

 - For example, Irish in GB and N. Africans in France

3. Permanent migration to North America and Australia, at first from Europe and later from Asia and Latin America

 - Often migration flows began with temporary recruitment (ex: Bracero system of recruiting Mexicans to do agrarian labor in California and Texas) but migrants settled permanently

- One common feature of migratory movements 1945-1970 is the predominance of economic motivations

Since 1970 many shifts have occurred in migratory trends, including. . .

- Transition of many Southern and Central European countries from places of emigration to places of immigration

- In Italy, foreign workers increased from 300,000 to 1.4 million 1981-2001

- Recruitment of foreign labor by oil-rich countries

- Increasing international mobility of highly qualified personnel

- Proliferation of illegal migration and legalization policies

- Attempts in the US to limit migration (primarily from Mexico) have included measures such as high fences, video surveillance and border patrol, and denying welfare benefits to illegals

Replacement migration in Western Europe is a big issue at the turn of the century

- UN population report in 2000 suggests that extremely high levels of immigration would be needed to achieve replacement levels in most countries

Ch. 6: Next waves: The globalization of international migration

- Objective of chapter is to describe current trends in international migration to, from, and within the Arab, African, and Latin American regions

Arab region

- Morocco and Turkey have largest population of expatriates living in the EU

 - Many Arab workers from poorer regions flock to the oil industry in Libya, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE

 - Gulf War transformed Iraq from region to immigration to one of emigration

 - Some, but much smaller, migration of Arabs to non-oil producing states

Africa

- Africa has the world’s most mobile population

- Migration often a way to escape poverty/starvation

- Many zones have freedom of movement policies, but depending on political environment migration may or may not be tolerated

Latin America and the Caribbean

- 4 areas of migrants:

Southern cone w/ Europeans,

Andean with Indians and mestizos,

Latin America with Indians and mestizos, a

nd Caribbean with Africans

- Seasonal labor migration very common

- Poor economies in the 1980s ->immigration to the US, Canada, and Europe

 “Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: A third demographic transition.” Population and Development Review, 32(3), 401-446.

Authors proposes that a third demographic transition is underway in Western Europe and the US

- High levels of immigration of persons from remote geographic and racial origins coupled with persistent sub-replacement fertility and emigration of the native population is causing the native population in these countries to be displaced into a minority position

How extensive is this pattern of events?

- To answer this question, Coleman projects forward the population in 7 European countries and the US, assuming fertility at current average for natives and at replacement for immigrants, average ASDRs, and current migration rates from poor countries and lower than current from rich countries

- Results suggest that by 2050, foreign-origin populations will comprise between 15% and 32% of total population in most countries

- The aging of native populations, relative to the youthful age structure of most foreign-origin populations, plays a large role in this

- One major difficulty with such projections, which Coleman notes, is that it is difficult to draw the line between foreign and native populations

- Different countries use to the term foreign-origin to mean different things, such as lack of citizenship, origin of mother, origin of grandmother, etc.

- Coleman defines foreign-origin population as those with parents or grandparents born abroad

- Such an arbitrary division doesn’t capture whether the person self-identifies as a member of another national group, the degree of assimilation to the native culture, etc.

Should this transformation of the ethnic and racial composition of Western countries be deemed a demographic transition?

- In order to call it a transition, Coleman argues it must be

1) fast in historical terms,

2) without precedent,

3) irreversible, and

4) of substantial social, cultural, and political significance

- Coleman believes this pattern meets these criteria

- The magnitude of replacement, geographic remoteness of immigrant groups, and speed of change have never been seen before

Plus, such an invasion has never occurred without force

- The changes are unlikely to be universal, but Coleman argues they will occur in all developed countries

How mixed-ethnic individuals are incorporated into society will matter greatly for the implications of this transition

- Will they assimilate to native culture?  Uphold the immigrant culture?  Identify as transnational?

- Perhaps ethnic divisions will cease to have meaning

In the US, for example, more than 1/3 of total population growth during the 1990s came from immigration

Worlds in Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millenium. Clarendon Press: Oxford.  Chapter 1: New Migrations, New Theories.

The modern history of international migration can be divided into roughly 4 periods

Mercantile Period: (1500-1800) World immigration dominated by flows out of Europe to colonies

Industrial Period: (1800-1925) Economic development of Europe leads to the spread of industrialism to the former colonies in the New World

- 85% of emigrants go to 5 destinations: Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and US

Period of limited migration: (1925-1960) Depression and wars halt migration

Post-industrial migration period: (1960s-onward) Supply of immigrants shift from Europe to Third World

General patterns of migration in the late 20^th century

- Most immigrants today come from countries characterized by a limited supply of capital, low rates of job creation, and abundant reserves of labor

- Today’s immigrant-receiving societies are far more intensive in capital and less intensive in land than destination countries in the past

- Immigrants no longer viewed as wanted or needed, despite the persistent demand for their services

- Large wealth and power discrepancies between sending and receiving societies

- In fact, Massey argues that considering the large disparities in wealth, power, and population that prevail within these systems, the actual size of the migration flow is really quite modest; it is not so much the actual size of flows as the potential size of flows that accounts for countries’ obsessive interest in immigration

2 traditional approaches to explaining immigration suffer from a number of shortcomings

1. At the micro-level, neoclassical models suggest that migrants act as rational actors responding to economic disparities between countries

- Such models have a difficult time explaining why one less developed country has a high rate of emigration while another doesn’t, why migrants don’t always go to places where wages are highest, why migration sometimes ceases before wage disparities disappear, why migration sometimes occurs in the absence of wage disparities

- Also cannot explain moves that are not economic in nature

- Assume that potential migrants are homogenous with respect to taste and risk

- Thus, Massey argues that economic disparities are a necessary but not a sufficient condition for emigration

2. At the macro-level, push-pull theories argue that migration enables an equilibrium to be achieved between forces of economic growth and contraction in different geographic locales

- One shortcoming of such theories is that they cannot account for the effects of restrictive immigration policies

- However, all borders do remain “porous” to some degree (might even be in the best interest of the government to allow some migrants to cross borders illegally)

New theories of international migration must recognize the interplay of individuals, motivations, and contexts defined at various levels of aggregation (household, community, national, and international) to explain why some individuals migrate and some do not, and why some countries send so many migrants abroad while others send only a few

“The new Americans: Economic, demographic, and fiscal effects of immigration.”

- In 1995, a panel of experts at the NRC was commissioned to answer the following 3 questions:

1. What is the effect of immigration on the future size and composition of the US population?

- Population projections suggest that immigration will account for 2/3 of the growth of the US population by 2050

- Immigration will affect the age distribution of the population (for instance, large increases in school age children)

- The size of the Asian-ancestry and Hispanic-ancestry populations will grow

2. What is the influence of immigration on the overall economy?

- Authors expect gains to the US economy as a whole, even though certain segments of the population may not benefit

- Higher-skilled domestic workers and the owners of capital will likely benefit

- Low-skilled domestic workers who compete with immigrants for jobs may not

- These negative effects would not necessarily be concentrated at the local level, because domestic workers would likely migrate out of areas where immigrants move in search of work

- Immigration is unlikely to have a very large effect on relative earnings or GDP per capita

3. What is the fiscal impact of immigration on federal, state, and local governments?

- Immigrants increase the tax burden on native households, especially in states where more immigrants live

- This is because immigrant-headed households tend to have more school-age children, are poorer, and have lower incomes and pay lower property taxes

- However, the economic characteristics of different generations of foreign-born residents vary substantially; like native-borns, the young and old tend to be a fiscal burden while working-age individuals tend to be net-payers